946 FXUS62 KJAX 120008 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 808 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021 .UPDATE... There was an widely scattered to scattered convection this late afternoon and early evening mainly northwest of U.S. Route 84 in in interior southeast Georgia. Despite good near-surface moisture recovery, mid level of the atmosphere was pretty dry, with the isodrosotherm analysis and precipitable water value contours showing best moisture to the west of the region today. Currently, there is convection over east central Georgia, with convective outflow moving complex slowly south and east, but with loss of daytime heating, these thunderstorms should diminish as they approach the Altamaha River Basin Region per HRRR. With a moist southwest steering flow overnight there may isolated to widely scattered shower or thunderstorms mainly from I-10 northward into southeast Georgia during the pre-dawn hours with main upper level trough axis over the mid Atlantic moves southeast in concert with the deeper moisture over the region. The aforementioned upper level trough and attendant backdoor front will continue to move southeast into the region Saturday. Moisture associated with the trough and southwesterly flow will restore moisture to the area after a relatively dry day today, which will increase shower and storm chances across the area from the northwest to southeast on Saturday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Greater coverage expected by late afternoon into the early evening as both lift, instability and low-level moisture peak, particularly north of a line from Jacksonville to Live Oak northward into southeast Georgia. The greatest chance for isolated severe storms are across interior southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley where SPC has outlined a marginal risk. && .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Sunday] Mainly VFR conditions prevail through the period. There may be a light shower with accompanying isold thunderstorms between 18z and 20z Saturday for area terminals north of I-10. Showers and thunderstorm chances pick up tomorrow particularly in the afternoon and evening for terminals north of I-10 between 20-24z. Any TSRA could have VRB higher gusts or 3-4SM vsbys. Prevailing winds Saturday will be out of the southwest, generally between 8 and 12 knots. && .PREV DISCUSSION [358 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Southwesterly winds have increased moisture across SE GA this afternoon, which will continue scattered showers and storms through the night as an upper level trough moves southeastward across the area. A few strong storms may be possible this evening north of I-10 as upper level waves round the base of the trough. Strong storm potential hazards could include brief heavy downpours, frequent lightning strikes, and wind gusts up to 50 mph. Storm strength will be limited overnight with a lack of daytime heating and reduced instability, but will pick up again Saturday. Low temperatures will be in the low-to-mid 70s across the area tonight, skies will be partly cloudy, and winds will be southwesterly. .SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... A backdoor cold front will slowly approach the area from the northeast through the weekend as the upper level trough moves to the southeast. Moisture associated with the trough and southwesterly flow will restore moisture to the area after a relatively dry day Friday, which will increase shower and storm chances across the area from the northwest to southeast on Saturday. Ahead of the boundary and along the leading edge of the trough, upper level divergence combined with instability caused by daytime heating will be sufficient enough to spawn a few stronger storms as the trough moves. Models suggest MUCAPE values Saturday afternoon could reach upwards of 1000 J/kg and MLCAPE could reach upward of 800 J/kg. Showers and storms will continue on Sunday as the base of the trough swings across NE FL. Sunday night showers and storm chances will decrease from north to south, but scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible, mainly in NE FL. Weekend high temperatures are expected to be cooler than Friday due to clouds and rain but still warm. Saturday highs will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s with cooler temperatures inland. Sunday highs will also be in the upper 80s and lower 90s but with cooler temperatures at the coast. .LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]... Another frontal boundary will move towards the region from the northwest while weakening early next week. Several upper level shortwaves will move along the boundary, which will continue rain and storm chances each day. Towards mid-to-late next week the boundary is expected to become stationary near the FL-GA border, bringing drier air behind the front to SE GA. Stronger storms will be possible ahead of the boundary as it approaches the area. High temperatures through the long term are expected to be in the upper 80s and lower 90s, and lows are expected to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. .MARINE... High pressure continues to sink south of the area as a slow moving backdoor cold front approaches the waters from the northeast with associated low pressure currently positioned over the Carolinas. The pressure gradient between the low to the northeast and the high to the southwest will increase winds and waves tonight. Small Craft will need to Exercise Caution in the nearshore and offshore waters due to 15-20 kt southwesterly winds and 3-5 ft waves. The front will continue to slowly approach the area and increase chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Southwesterly flow will prevail Saturday, then shift to westerly Sunday as the front approaches the SE GA waters. By the middle of next week a weakening frontal boundary will stall just north of the area waters, which will continue shower and thunderstorm chances each day. Southwesterly winds and 2-4 ft waves are expected to prevail Monday through Wednesday. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk today at all area beaches. Prevailing offshore winds this weekend and decreasing wave heights will result in a downward trend towards Low Risk at all area beaches. .FIRE WEATHER... Southwesterly winds have helped to recover moisture across SE GA this afternoon, and will continue to increase moisture across the area through the weekend. Tonight winds will decrease slightly and scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue in SE GA. Breezy west-southwesterly winds with gusts near 15 mph will prevail Saturday. Winds are expected to decrease on Sunday, which will lower dispersions. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase from northwest to southeast across the area Saturday and Sunday. A stormy weather pattern is expected to continue into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 89 70 89 69 / 40 60 60 50 10 SSI 76 90 75 88 75 / 30 60 70 50 20 JAX 74 91 72 90 71 / 20 60 60 60 30 SGJ 74 91 73 88 72 / 10 40 50 60 40 GNV 72 90 71 89 70 / 10 50 50 70 40 OCF 72 91 73 90 72 / 10 30 50 60 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&