925 
FXUS64 KTSA 071143
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
643 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Several clusters of strong thunderstorms will continue this 
morning with IFR/MVFR conditions in the stronger storms. Much of 
this activity should begin to weaken this afternoon as atmosphere 
stabilizes. Could see some patchy fog or low clouds redevelop 
tonight. 


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across parts of
northeast OK on the southwestern flank of broad upper level low, 
which was centered near OK/KS/MO borders. Expect continued
development within this corridor during the morning with a low-end
threat of hail, but a bigger concern for locally excessive
rainfall amounts due to slow movement of storms and anomalously
high precip H2O. Isolated 2-3" per hour rates will likely cause
some degree of flash flood threat, however given the uncertain
evolution of storms over the next several hours will not issue a
watch at this time and handle with short-fused products as needed.
The overall trend in short-range guidance is for this activity to
weaken later this morning with storms becoming focused farther 
south and east through the afternoon, though model agreement 
leaves some to be desired. 

The upper low will continue to gradually lift northeast with
lingering trough axis remaining over the forecast area Tuesday.
Later tonight there is a decent signal for a strengthening low 
level jet to set up over the southern plains with increasing 
moisture transport. It is possible that heavy rain could impact 
the same general areas that see heavy rain today, however 
confidence lacks to support a watch issuance at this time. 

The trend will be for lessening shower and thunderstorm chances 
by mod to late week with upper ridge amplifying over the Southern
Plains, providing us with our first taste of summer weather with 
temperatures warming a bit above normal and humidity remaining 
high. Still appears a frontal boundary will push south into the 
area by the weekend underneath the strengthening ridge and as such
wold expect any thunderstorm chances with the front to remain 
fairly limited. 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....12