022 
FXUS63 KLBF 061719
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

A Pacific cold front moving through the nrn Rockies this morning 
should drift into wrn Nebraska this morning and become stationary 
across ncntl and the srn Panhandle this afternoon providing an 
excellent focus of thunderstorm development. The models have 
perked up on moisture and instability but continue to struggle 
with forcing and shear for organized storm development. There are 
also indications in the NAM and RAP models that capping could be 
too strong for storm development. Nonetheless, the SREF and HREF 
suggest isolated storm development this evening and the HREF 
backed by Bufkit suggests the potential for locally heavy rainfall
if storms can develop. Precipitable water should rise to between 
1.33 and 1.5 inches by early this evening. 

POPs for this forecast are limited to 20 percent and given the weak 
15kt effective shear, the storm mode should be outflow dominant 
storms capable of gusty winds. SPC suggests the severe weather 
potential will remain less than 2 percent.

The temperature forecast today through Monday leans on the warmest 
data which for this forecast was the bias corrected short term model 
blend. This suggested highs in the 80s to lower 90s today and low to 
mid 90s Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

Isolated to chance POPs continue daily through Thursday with the 
best chances Tuesday evening and Thursday. A subtropical upper low
off the coast of California this morning should move east around 
the base of a deepening long wave trof across the wrn U.S.. The 
models have been very consistent carrying this disturbance through
WY Tuesday. Storm activity should develop across the Laramie 
range during the afternoon and move or develop east into wrn 
Nebraska Tuesday evening. 

Another stronger system could affect wrn and ncntl Nebraska late 
Thursday. The models show the bulk of the energy from a long wave 
trof across the wrn U.S. lifting through the nrn Rockies. Winds 
aloft across wrn and ncntl Nebraska at h500mb should increase to 30 
to 55kts potentially supporting an active severe weather situation.

Otherwise rain chances are generally isolated Monday and Wednesday. 
The strong system Thursday should drive a cold front through wrn and 
ncntl Nebraska stabilizing the atmosphere Friday and beyond. There 
is little change in the upper air pattern however. In the wake of 
the system Thursday, another upper low will drop south off the coast 
of the Pacific Northwest. This will cause a subtropical ridge of 
high pressure to ridge north into the cntl Plains. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 6 2021

Mostly clear skies and gusty winds will continue this afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening, mainly for
southwest and north central Nebraska. Brief drops in visby from
heavy rain and erratic gusty winds are the main concern with any
thunderstorm. Winds lighten tonight, then shift to southerly for
tomorrow. Primarily VFR is expected through the forecast period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Snively