987 FXUS64 KBMX 050744 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 244 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0243 AM CDT Sat Jun 05 2021/ Through Sunday. High pressure will be the dominant force across the area, but we will still have the left over trough trapped in the Southeast. Therefore will continue with isolated to scattered coverage north and scattered to likely pops in the south. Currently watching a broad swath of showers moving northward from the coast. Strictly timing that out would bring in showers to the southwest by 9 to 11 am. Would expect some of the rain to fade as the rest of the night progresses, but some will hold together somewhat to provide at least a chance early. Decided to increase PoPs in the southwest the afternoon to likely as well as starting around 1 pm versus 4 pm based on this trend of the rain movement. May need to re- evaluate highs in the southwest if this rain can hold together and will make some final tweaks later this morning. For now look for highs in the mid to upper 80s. As we move into the evening the rain will begin to dissipate after sunset and we should see a period of overall dry weather after 10pm. We will then need to watch the timing of the next little wave of energy that will begin to slide into the area by midnight and then spread north and east through the night. Rainfall with this should be light overnight so did not go extremely high on the rain chances given the lack of confidence that most areas will even measure. Better lift and rain chances on Sunday as the main disturbance moves into the area. Will go with high chances across the west during the day. Definitely a more than normal chance of rain for early June. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 70s in the west to low to mid 80s elsewhere. 16 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0243 AM CDT Sat Jun 05 2021/ Sunday night through Friday. An upper low will continue to gradually drift northeastward and fill in the vicinity of the Ozarks Sunday night through Monday night, with an associated trough over the south-central CONUS. Deep layer southerly flow off the Gulf will continue to result in deep tropical moisture across the area with PWATs around 2 inches and 1000-500mb mean RH values of 80 to 90 percent. This will result in continued rounds of showers and storms with high PoPs, but it won't rain the whole time. There could be some locally heavy rainfall concerns with the potential for training storms, especially in the west. The upper low will devolve into an open wave by Tuesday, but a remnant mid/upper-level shear axis/ridge weakness over the Lower Mississippi Valley region between a ridge near the Southeast Atlantic coast and a stronger ridge over West Texas and northern Mexico. This combined with high PWATs will continue to result in enhanced chances of mainly diurnally driven showers and storms. Highest chances will be in the northwest closer to the weakness and higher moisture values, while areas in the southeast may see a decrease in rain chances and warmer temperature depending on the exact location of the ridge. High temperatures will start off the week a touch below normal, becoming near normal through the rest of the week, with typical humidity levels. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Discussion. Variable visibility IFR to MVFR at TOI tonight as fog will roll in and out of the site. Best chances at fog tonight will be for the eastern 4, ANB, ASN, TOI and MGM. Went ahead and included at EET and TCL as well but only tempo close to sunrise. Scattered showers and storms this afternoon with best coverage at TOI and MGM. Southerly winds between 7 to 10 kts this afternoon. Note: AMD NOT SKED until further notice at KASN due to ongoing equipment issues. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... A moist air mass will remain in place over the area for the next few days, with scattered to numerous showers and storms especially during the afternoon and evening hours and chances for fog each night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 87 67 81 65 83 / 30 20 60 50 70 Anniston 87 69 83 68 84 / 30 30 60 40 70 Birmingham 86 68 81 68 83 / 40 30 60 50 70 Tuscaloosa 84 69 79 68 84 / 40 50 90 50 80 Calera 84 68 80 68 82 / 40 30 70 40 70 Auburn 85 68 83 68 82 / 40 30 60 40 70 Montgomery 87 70 83 70 85 / 50 30 70 40 70 Troy 87 68 83 69 83 / 50 30 60 30 70 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$