097 FXUS63 KILX 030158 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 858 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 Chances of scattered rain showers will linger through Thursday for areas primarily south of I-70. An isolated shower could occur north of there early this evening, but most areas across central IL will be dry the rest of this week into this weekend. The bigger story will be a noticeable warming trend, with highs in the 80s Friday through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 858 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 Have trimmed out most PoPs for this evening except within a county or so of IN based on recent radar trends showing diminishing precipitation echoes as the surface low from earlier today moves northeastward away from southeast IL. Nevertheless, the large scale trough axis lingers back to the west near the OK/AR border and shortwaves embedded in the southwest flow aloft will continue to aim at southeast IL through Thursday, and showers/isolated thunderstorms may return late tonight through Thursday afternoon. Also added some patchy fog to the late night/early morning forecast from around Shelbyville to Rantoul eastward as higher dewpoints in the low to mid 60s and light/variable wind in this area suggest some fog potential, however it is far from the ideal fog setup with few breaks in cloud cover expected and, with the exception of areas southeast of Effingham to Danville, recent precipitation has been spotty. Lows tonight in the upper 50s and lower 60s still look on track. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 The surface low near SE Illinois will dissipate tonight as it slides off to the east. A few showers may affect areas east of I-55, but the better chances look to remain south of I-70. High res guidance even has that area primarily dry through Thursday. We have decreased the PoPs across the board as a result, with even further reductions in coverage possible. Cloud cover looks to remain across the area through tonight, as a secondary low travels up the Ohio River Valley later tonight and Thursday. However, that low will have less synoptic impact, and minimal precip chances are expected. Low temps will be similar to last night, near normal in the upper 50s to low 60s. Decreasing afternoon clouds will allow high temps Thursday to climb 3-5F above todays highs, with low 80s north of I-72 and upper 70s south of I-72 where thicker cloud cover will persist. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 The early extended forecast will be dominated by rising heights aloft, and a significant warm-up. While a longwave ridge will be edging into the mid-Mississippi Valley, sporadic shortwaves will undercut the ridge and trigger periodic cloud cover for southern portions of Illinois. However, dry conditions look to prevail Friday through Sunday as high temps climb into the mid to upper 80s. In the summer-like heat and humidity, afternoon and early evening storm chances will occur Monday through Wednesday. Potential of severe storms appears low for the most part in the extended forecast. However, Wednesday looks to have the highest SBCAPE values across the area, with readings in the 1500-2000 J/kg, which could lead to some strong storms. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 Cloud cover will remain at VFR levels, slowly diminishing from the northwest Thursday as low pressure pulls away to the east. Patchy fog from around KDEC-KCMI southeastward late tonight could bring some MVFR or locally/briefly worse visibilities. Winds will be light through the period, variable across the area tonight, becoming predominantly northwest under 10 kts by 13Z-15Z Thursday. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...37 SYNOPSIS...Shimon SHORT TERM...Shimon LONG TERM...Shimon AVIATION...37