655 FXUS62 KFFC 020756 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 356 AM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/... An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms is lifting northeastward across the Tennessee Valley this morning in association with a shortwave traversing the 500mb trough situated across the Southern Plains. The bulk of this activity will remain to the northwest and west of the area this morning, though peripheral showers could brush parts of northwest Georgia at times. By this afternoon, additional isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm development is possible primarily in far north Georgia in the southwest flow regime aloft. Again, the highest coverage will remain to our northwest and west, closer to the influence of disturbances working through the trough. The remainder of the area will largely remain dry today with perhaps an isolated shower or storm in the far southeast forecast area. Heading from tonight into Thursday morning, PoPs will remain situated across far north Georgia as additional scattered showers and thunderstorms may spread northeastward. On Thursday, PoPs will be on an upward trend areawide, though with a bit of a minimum across the center of the CWA. Convective coverage will increase from the northwest as embedded disturbances work through the eastward propagating trough axis and the surface cold front slowly approaches northwest Georgia. The risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms will exist Thursday afternoon and evening ahead of the front in north Georgia. While forecast instability is not excessive (generally 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and lapse rates are weak, 30-40kts of bulk shear would be sufficient to produce an isolated damaging wind gust threat. The other area of higher PoPs will be across eastern portions of the CWA Thursday afternoon where enhanced moisture and southeast low-level flow will favor convective development. Afternoon highs will be limited to near or slightly below normal amid increasing clouds and convection, though overnight lows will be on the warm side as moisture increases. RW .LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/... As the extended period begins, an upper level trough positioned over the Mississippi Valley region will be lifting northeastward. Meanwhile, a weakening cold front associated with the trough will be pushing southward through the forecast area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to be ongoing as the period begins, with the highest coverage in the vicinity of the front. With the loss of daytime instability and weakening deep-layer shear in the vicinity of the frontal boundary as it moves south, the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to be limited Thursday night into Friday morning. The trough axis is expected to clear north Georgia by Friday morning, and as the trough quickly lifts off to the northeast, the frontal boundary will lose its upper level forcing and stall across central Georgia before washing out entirely. A closed off upper low developing over Texas will keep a southwesterly flow regime aloft in place through the weekend and into the early parts of next week, keeping deep moisture in place across much of the area. PoPs have been trended down on Saturday and Saturday night with guidance indicating a brief period of drier air and surface high pressure in north Georgia just behind the exiting trough. Still, with high temperatures mainly in the 80s each afternoon and dewpoints in the 60s, instability will be sufficient to support the development of scattered to numerous airmass thunderstorms each day through the remainder of the period, with the highest coverage of storms expected during the afternoon hours each day. Rainfall totals from Thursday night through Tuesday continue to trend lower, and are expected to range from 0.5-1" in central Georgia and 0.25-0.5" in north Georgia. King && .AVIATION... 06Z Update... VFR conditions will likely be largely dominant through the period. There is some potential for at least brief MVFR or lower cigs primarily at MCN/AHN by around 10-12Z. Some few/sct lower clouds are also possible toward ATL, though potential is lower. Otherwise, expect cigs to be primarily 10-20kft with SCT clouds in 040-080 range Wednesday afternoon. Winds will initially be SE before a shift toward SW at ATL area sites by around 18z for several hours before shifting back SE by 00z Thursday at speeds 4-8kts. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium confidence on morning cigs. High confidence on other elements. RW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 82 65 86 65 / 10 20 50 50 Atlanta 82 67 85 67 / 10 10 40 50 Blairsville 73 61 77 59 / 20 40 60 50 Cartersville 79 65 82 62 / 20 30 40 40 Columbus 88 68 89 68 / 5 5 20 40 Gainesville 79 65 82 65 / 10 20 50 50 Macon 88 66 89 67 / 5 5 30 40 Rome 79 65 82 64 / 20 40 40 40 Peachtree City 84 65 86 65 / 10 10 30 40 Vidalia 88 70 87 69 / 20 20 50 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....King AVIATION...RW