963 FXUS64 KAMA 011818 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 118 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021 .SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow Night... Subtle mid level wave moving through northwest flow is depicted in the latest water vapor imagery moving into portions of northeast NM and the western combined Panhandles. Some convective showers and very isolated thunderstorms have developed along a weak area of sfc convergence north of a surface low near KCVN and KDHT amidst surface dew points in the mid 50s. Another perturbation in the north northwest flow is moving into west central CO as of this writing. This feature may help initiate elevated storms later tonight as it round the backside of an upper level trough whose axis will be over western OK up into the central plains. The first round of activity through this afternoon will be isolated to scattered as lift will be limited, especially considering PVA is already occurring. The best area for destabilization will be across the northwestern third of the Panhandles where insolation and cooler mid level temperatures will help overcome any capping with about 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. East of AMA to PPA will see slightly warmer mid level temperatures and lower MLCAPE maxing out at 700 to 1000 J/kg. DCAPE values today are generally less than 1000 J/kg, so will need some good hydrometeor loading to produce a substantial wind gust over 70 mph, especially considering storm motions will be slow (east southeast at 10 to 20 mph based on mean 0-6km winds). Effective shear this afternoon will be marginal for storm organization at around 20 to 30 knots. However, a 500mb jet max does increase this evening which should result in a slight uptick in 0-6km bulk shear at 40 to 50 knots, yet by this time the thermodynamic skew-T profiles should become more stable near the surface, resulting in smaller effective MUCAPE around 400 to 800 J/kg. Thus, a few multicells will be possible this afternoon with the strongest updrafts capable of 60 mph winds and 1.5 inch hail. As the second wave moves through this evening (mainly after 9 PM), the strongest storms should stay below severe criteria (although hail near quarter size can't be ruled out). Storms may congeal some overnight as the feed into a relatively weak low level jet. A low flash flood threat does exist today based on PWATs between the 75th and 90th percentile and slow storm motions. The Panhandle area stays on the backside of the upper level trough tomorrow with an a similar setup to today, perhaps shifted east and south. There are some differences with moisture fields tomorrow as a weak frontal boundary tries to bring in some drier low level air. This will lower chances for convection across the northwestern half of the area. Will have to watch the position of the frontal boundary (along with any residual outflow boundaries) to get a better idea of where storms will develop. Best CAPE will be more focused across the southern zones (especially southwest) with effective shear around 25 to 35 knots, so multicells should be possible once again with severe hail being the main threat. Ward && .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday... North to northwest flow aloft with a few minor disturbances for the Panhandles starting Thursday. Thursday through Saturday the forecast looks to remain dry. A small ridge will start to build over NM and CO going into Sunday. Overall flow aloft is pretty weak through the extended period, and as of right now the NBM only has wide spread slight chance PoPs Sunday evening. Then, some slight chance PoPs in the eastern Panhandles Monday evening. Daytime temperatures will be in the 80s with Td's still in the 50s and 60s through Monday. Convective temperatures will be the primary driver for thunderstorm initiation. Hoffeditz && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 55 77 56 80 58 / 50 20 10 10 5 Beaver OK 53 76 54 82 58 / 40 20 0 0 0 Boise City OK 47 75 51 80 54 / 30 10 0 5 0 Borger TX 57 81 59 84 61 / 50 10 5 5 0 Boys Ranch TX 55 80 56 83 58 / 50 20 5 5 5 Canyon TX 55 78 55 80 56 / 50 30 10 10 5 Clarendon TX 57 77 57 79 58 / 50 40 20 10 5 Dalhart TX 48 77 51 80 54 / 40 20 5 5 5 Guymon OK 52 77 53 82 57 / 40 5 0 0 0 Hereford TX 54 80 54 82 56 / 50 30 20 20 5 Lipscomb TX 54 76 55 82 58 / 40 30 5 5 0 Pampa TX 55 77 56 80 58 / 50 30 5 5 0 Shamrock TX 56 77 56 81 58 / 50 40 10 10 5 Wellington TX 57 77 58 81 59 / 50 50 20 10 5 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 7/36