901 
FXUS65 KFGZ 010859
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
159 AM MST Tue Jun 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms develop
again this afternoon and into this evening along the eastern 
Mogollon Rim. With the main threats being strong gusty outflow 
winds and dry lightning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected 
to continue through the week, though much of the area will remain 
dry and warm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As the main trough axis moves eastward, the upper- 
level low at the base of the trough becomes cut off over northern 
Mexico. High pressures then builds to the north and west of 
Arizona, keeping the low locked in place through the week. 

As a result, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible each afternoon this week, mainly along the eastern 
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Dry air remains in place through
the boundary layer, so much of the shower activity will be high-
based, with the main threats being strong gusty outflow winds and 
dry lightning. Thursday and Friday, moisture increase a bit more 
resulting afternoon shower activity increasing in coverage to 
include areas from Flagstaff and eastward. 

Rainfall accumulation through the week will be minimal, with the 
most likley areas to see any wetting precipitation being over the 
White Mountains. Otherwise, much of the areas is expected to 
remain dry with temperatures remaining steady around near-average 
to slightly above-average with light winds through Friday.

Towards the weekend, winds look to increase as model guidance 
suggest another trough will begin its decent down the West Coast, 
however the exact details are still uncertain at this point. As of 
now though, slightly cooler temperatures along with unsettled weather 
looks possible for Sunday and into the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Winds becoming W-NW at 10-15 kts 
during  the afternoon hours. Another round of isolated to scattered 
showers and thunderstorms will develop 18Z-02Z mostly southeast of a 
KFLG-KRQE line. Expect VFR conditions to prevail for the next 24 
hrs, the exception being locally reduced visibility near showers and 
thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms will 
develop today, with dry lightning and strong outflow winds the main 
threats. Best chance for storms along Mogollon Rim/White Mountains, 
with very low wetting rain chances. Similar weather on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Low chances for high-based showers and 
thunderstorms persist each day. Dry lightning and gusty outflow wind 
threats continue with only light rainfall expected. The best chance 
for wetting rain will be over the White Mountains.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff