026 
FXUS63 KTOP 300406
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1106 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021

A mid level ridge was in place from the Great Lakes southward across 
Kansas and into the southern Plains this afternoon. A surface high 
extended from northeast iowa into northeast Kansas this afternoon at 
20Z. Clouds have been slow to breakup across parts of northeast and 
east central Kansas, but satellite trends suggest that they should 
scatter out by 23Z. An approaching mid level trough will bring an 
increase in high and mid level clouds this evening and overnight 
across northeast Kansas.

Tonight, rain chances will increase after midnight across north 
central Kansas and then gradually increase across northeast and east 
central Kansas Sunday as the mid level wave traverses the central 
Plains. Lows tonight will cool into the 40s across northeast Kansas 
to around 50 in north central Kansas. Highs will be cool again on 
Sunday with highs in the 60s. 

Rain chances will continue into mid week as a series of perturbations 
move out across the central Plains, prior to a mid level trough 
moving through the region on Wednesday. Lapse rates continue to 
remain generally unfavorable for thunderstorms through the period, 
so have maintained primarily showers with minimal thunder mentioned 
through mid week. Temperatures remain cool through Tuesday with 
highs in the 60s. Temperatures warm up through the second half of 
the week as heights rise over the southern and into the central 
Plains. Highs in the 70s Wednesday warming into the 80s Thursday 
into next weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021

Mid clouds will continue to increase overnight. Saturation may be
slow to build down which would ultimately delay precipitation
at the terminals. But once precipitation begins then cloud decks
should lower quickly with possible IFR conditions by the end of
the period especially over the KMHK terminal. Not anticipating
thunderstorms with this set up but light to moderate periods of
rainfall appear possible over a prolonged period of time possibly
into the next forecast period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...Drake