931 FXUS64 KLUB 291114 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 614 AM CDT Sat May 29 2021 .AVIATION... IFR/LIFR CIGs have developed across the region, affecting KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW. Low CIGs will persist through at least the early afternoon hours before gradually lifting to VFR, though a dense overcast will be present at around 8 kft MSL. CIGs will quickly lower back into MVFR/IFR later tonight for all three terminals with increasing chances for convection near KCDS early Sunday morning. Sincavage && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 AM CDT Sat May 29 2021/ SHORT TERM... Convection has cleared the CWA this early morning with easterly winds across the northern periphery of the quasi-stationary front that is located across the Edwards Plateau and bending northward into east-central New Mexico. A secondary frontal boundary was delineated across the Red River Basin that extends into Colorado Foothills, and this front will gradually infiltrate the CWA throughout the rest of the morning. In the wake of the convective episode a few hours ago, the soaking rainfall and clearing sky will enhance near-surface radiative cooling effects. Patchy fog will be possible across the Caprock through sunrise while a deck of low stratus forms across most of the extreme southern TX PH, and the South and Rolling Plains. The combination of dense overcast and easterly upslope flow will once again result in mild temperatures this afternoon, with temperatures peaking in the 70s area-wide. Low-amplitude ridging persists across the southwestern Great Plains and Four Corners region, with a weak shortwave perturbation rotating across Nevada and Utah this morning. Meanwhile, cyclogenesis of a 1012 mb surface low is underway across southeastern Colorado and this low will deepen further throughout the day today. Generally benign weather is expected today as the CWA remains capped, though the formation of diurnally-driven convection will occur along and off the Sacramento Mountains as the aforementioned shortwave trough rotates over the western Great Plains this afternoon and evening. However, these storms are not expected to make it to the Texas/New Mexico state line. The potential for thunderstorms, some severe including a threat for heavy rain, will gradually increase by the mid-morning hours Sunday as a Mesoscale Convective System moves into West Texas from the north. Sincavage LONG TERM... Heavy rain continues to look like the main threat in the early part of the long term portion of the forecast period, specifically Sunday and Monday. A closed low is progged to form over southern Arizona and northern Sonora form a piece of energy pushed eastward by a developing upper ridge over the eastern Pacific but also out of phase with an short wave trough moving through the northern branch of the jet stream across southern Canada. Through these two days three periods of widespread convection are expected across southern High Plains downstream from the closed low in an area of increasingly rich and deep moisture. The first batch of storms is likely to be ongoing early Sunday moving moving out of the Panhandle. Meanwhile, the northern branch trough will push a cold front southward toward the Raton Plateau eastward across the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles, likely serving as the focus for convection late Sunday that will in turn move southeastward into the forecast area Sunday night. Finally, Monday's diurnally driven convection looks to be further south on remnant outflow from previous MCS's from eastern New Mexico eastward into the South Plains area. Through this period PWAT's across the forecast area are progged to range from near 1 inch west to in excess of 1.5 inches east pointing to potential for heavy rain with each MCS. Thunderstorm chances decrease some for Tuesday and Wednesday as, potentially, low level foci are removed. However, the closed low will remain over northwestern Mexico while the flow over the CONUS becomes a little more amplified with the southern end of an upper trough and its associated cyclonic curvature situated over West Texas. Given lingering moisture, the potential for at least scattered storms looks more than reasonable. That scenario looks murkier heading to the end of the week as the cutoff low begins to weaken and the trough centered over the Midwest shifts eastward, replaced by ridging over central and northern Plains. Precip chance will not quite be zero, however, as a weak trough is progged to persist south of the ridge and extending toward the cutoff low. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 09