505 FXUS62 KTAE 270515 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 115 AM EDT Thu May 27 2021 .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Friday] Patchy fog is likely to develop near ECP and eastward to VLD through the early morning hours but, should clear by 14Z today. Winds will shift to southwesterly in the afternoon. VFR cigs for all terminals in the afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION [807 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]... Upper level ridging will flatten to become nearly zonal late tonight through Thursday as a shortwave passes eastward through the Tennessee Valley. The surface ridge will drop southward with the westward extending axis across the Florida peninsula and through the central Gulf. Low level flow will remain out of the southwest so we will continue to see a gradual influx of gulf moisture but rain chances are still negligible. We should continue to see above seasonal daytime temperatures with highs in the lower to mid 90s and an overnight low tonight in the mid to upper 60s. .SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Friday Night]... The upper level ridge will continue to flatten through the short term period as a weak shortwave clears the region Thursday night and a stronger upper level trough to the northwest approaches. A frontal boundary will near the area from the northwest through the day Friday but its forward progress will slow through the day so any convection will likely stay off to the northwest on Friday, but we can't rule out an isolated storm of two across our northwestern zones. .LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]... Greater rain chances move into the forecast for the weekend period as the upper level trough moves through the southeast and the frontal boundary to our northwest slowly slides through the region. This boundary, along with some support aloft from the upper level trough, will lead to scattered showers and storms across the area in a mostly diurnal pattern on Saturday. Interactions with the seabreeze will also help in the development of showers and storms on Saturday afternoon. By the end of the weekend, uncertainty increases as global guidance differ fairly significantly in the handling of this trough. Some guidance like the GFS cut off this upper level trough over the FL Peninsula while the Euro/Canadian guidance remain a little more progressive and weaker with the cutoff low. Regardless, cooler temperatures are likely into the upcoming weekend as well as an increase in rain chances, but we'll have to see how long rain chances stick around into the upcoming week. .MARINE... Favorable boating conditions expected through most of the period with winds around 5 to 10 knots and seas around 1 to 3 feet. Mostly dry conditions are expected but a few showers can't be ruled out over the weekend, along with a small increase in the winds and seas as a frontal boundary nears the region. .FIRE WEATHER... Aside from high daytime dispersion, fuel moistures continue to dry out. However, low level moisture will gradually increase and hopefully most areas will start receiving some beneficial rains beginning this weekend. Winds will also continue to be light so red flag criteria is not expected to be met at least for the next several days. .HYDROLOGY... Rain chances increase into the weekend but coverage will remain mostly isolated to scattered and no flooding concerns are expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 66 93 67 90 / 0 0 0 10 40 Panama City 85 69 84 70 85 / 0 0 0 10 30 Dothan 92 66 93 69 89 / 10 0 10 20 50 Albany 95 68 95 69 92 / 0 0 10 10 50 Valdosta 95 66 95 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 40 Cross City 95 67 90 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 20 Apalachicola 85 69 83 70 83 / 0 0 0 0 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Barry SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM...Dobbs AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Barry HYDROLOGY...Dobbs