018 FXUS64 KBRO 242344 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 644 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Showers/thunderstorms will pretty much have dissipated or moved north of the region by or shortly after sunset. VFR conditions for the evening with MVFR ceiling forming after midnight or closer to sunrise Tuesday. Confidence is low on how widespread Ceiling will become and may be more patchy and short-lived. A few coastal showers to form overnight possible approaching the coast around sunrise. Confidence and probability is low on if showers may impact the regional airports with the main upper disturbance will be well removed from Deep South Texas Tuesday. Light southeast winds prevail tonight becoming moderate tomorrow afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Sea breeze enhanced convection is underway this afternoon, with thunderstorms moving northwest and north along the line with some training and moderate downpours. The convection will continue, mainly for eastern sections, for a few more hours before conditions settle down this evening. Factors are a weakness aloft and ample low level moisture. Gusty winds and occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning are accompanying the main cells. Ridging will continue over the Southeast United States with synoptic scale high pressure over the Gulf supporting moderate southeast breezes. Conditions will be slightly less favorable for areawide convective coverage on Tuesday as the mid level weakness fills, but the NAM, for example, suggests another sea breeze event on Tuesday. Temperatures will be near normal east but slightly above normal west on Tuesday. Tides are running over a foot above predicted, leading to beach run-up and overwash, especially around high tide. High tide at Brazos Santiago is forecast for 4:45 AM on Tuesday, leading to possible minor coastal flooding. Heading toward a full moon plus persistent east swell may lead to an elevated (potentially high) risk of rip currents on Tuesday as well. LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): 500 mb ridging will be building over the RGV/Deep South TX on Wed with the ridging persisting through Fri and into Sat. The deep layer tropical moisture feed over the region will be shut down later this week which will allow for above normal temps and below normal pops to prevail. Then a rather large and elongated 500 mb trough axis will start digging into the Western States. This western trough axis will start pushing eastwards towards the South Central Plains States over the upcoming weekend. But the 500 mb ridging will still likely remain entrenched over the region through next Mon. Some better moisture values may start to edge into W/N TX over the weekend, but do not expect much in the way of serious moisture advection to occur over the RGV. So for now will hold off on bringing in any serious pops throughout the longer range period. The ECMWF and GFS models are in decent agreement in the overall 500 mb pattern through Days 7/8. However the ECMWF is more bullish in the moisture advection ahead of the West Coast 500 mb trough and accordingly is a little bit wetter for pops for the weekend. The longer range temps from both models are in reasonable agreement with the ECMWF coming in slightly warmer versus the GFS. The overall confidence level for the longer range forecast wording is above average this afternoon. The latest longer range tropical model guidance and 5 day outlook from NHC indicates that the Atlantic Basin will remain quiet for the rest of this work week. MARINE (Today through Tuesday Night): Moderate southeast winds through the forecast. Moderate to sometimes slightly higher seas on the Gulf waters, especially offshore, due to persistent east swell. A slight uptick in winds/waves may occur on the offshore Gulf waters tonight, with borderline small craft advisory conditions. Wednesday through Saturday Night: The PGF will likely slacken slowly from Wed onwards as broad surface ridging persists over the Gulf of Mex. This will allow moderate winds and seas to persist with no SCA conditions expected through Sat Night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 86 76 86 / 10 10 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 77 88 77 90 / 10 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 75 89 76 90 / 10 10 0 0 MCALLEN 75 92 76 93 / 10 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 74 96 76 97 / 10 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 81 78 81 / 10 10 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ256-257- 351. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 59-GB/99