137 
FXUS65 KFGZ 240356
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
856 PM MST Sun May 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Monday morning will feature another round of chilly 
temperatures, which will warm quickly for a very nice day across 
the area. Winds become breezy on Wednesday and into the weekend. 
Daytime temperatures will be mild through this entire week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A very dry atmosphere, low surface dew point 
temperatures and nearly-calm winds tonight will set up across
northern Arizona to create another round of chilly early morning
temperatures for Monday. Freezing temperatures are likely again
for some areas tonight, with some high country basins dropping 
into the low to mid-twenties. Minimum temperatures for tonight 
along the eastern Rim and in the White Mountains were lowered a 
few degrees with the evening update, otherwise the afternoon 
forecast package remains right on track.

A warming trend and generally light winds will take hold through 
Tuesday to become near-normal. For the rest of the week, 
temperatures remain near-normal as a series of troughs pass to 
the north and prevent a ridge from setting up over the Southwest.
Breezy southwest afternoon winds return Wednesday and last 
through the rest of the work week.

Ensemble guidance is showing a cutoff low could set up off the 
southern California coast over the weekend. Confidence is low on 
the placement and magnitude this trough. Northern Arizona is set 
to see gusty southwest winds this weekend if the trend continues.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions under 
clear skies. Calm winds tonight become 5-10 kts and gusts to 15 
kts after 18z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Light afternoon breezes and single digit relative
humidity continues. Temperatures warm through Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Breezy southwest afternoon winds and dry,
warm weather persists. Expect Haines Index values of 5 or 6 along
and north of the Mogollon Rim.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...NL/DB
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...NL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff