300 FXUS64 KTSA 231738 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1238 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. Tropical moisture continues to be funneled into eastern Oklahoma at this time. The bulk of the rain is off to the west of the TAF sites but the latest vis sat and radar are showing breaks in the clouds with showers starting to pop up within those breaks across E OK. NW AR has cumulus activity starting up with some shower activity possible through this evening. Shower activity with occasional drops to MVFR ceilings will continue through this evening. An isolated rumble of thunder will be possible though confidence was not high enough to warrant a mention in this TAF. This evening will see showers die off quickly as instability weakens and slightly dry air moves in. The overnight hours will see a break in the shower activity with VFR ceilings expected with even some clearing here and there. Tomorrow morning will see the atmospheric river get started up once again bringing us chances for more showers (mainly to our E OK TAF sites though NW AR TAF sites will be right on the edge of the morning activity). Ceilings are also expected to fall across the area with MVFR ceilings expected in E OK tomorrow morning with NW AR again right on the edge. Snider && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 950 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021/ ..UPDATE... DISCUSSION... Tropical moisture continues to be pumped into the area with a ridge of high pressure maintaining to the east and a trough located to our west. The ridge is expanding ever so slightly westward which has shifted the heaviest area of precipitation to the western portion of the CWA. PWAT analysis continues to support this with the best available PWATs over the western half of the area now. This westward expansion should allow for most areas across the CWA (especially NW AR and far E OK) to be dry this afternoon and to warm up quickly where the sun is already peeking through. With the sun peeking through, this should locally elevate instability and will likely result in a few thunderstorms developing this afternoon across far E OK into far NW AR. Subsidence from the mid level ridge may suppress most of the development though a few should bust through. Given the weak overall flow regime, severe weather is not expected. The atmospheric river which has given showers for many days now may briefly be cutoff early tonight with drier air moving in giving us a small break from our wet weather. It is expected to reestablish itself across eastern Oklahoma by early tomorrow morning. At this point, showers and isolated thunderstorms will again resume across eastern Oklahoma and possibly NW AR. As for the forecast, some adjustments to PoPs were made for late this morning into the afternoon based on the current trends. Temperatures were also adjusted (mainly across the western part of the CWA) where cloud cover and rainfall are keeping temperatures down. An update will be issued shortly. Snider && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 66 79 66 82 / 10 40 20 60 FSM 65 83 66 82 / 10 30 30 60 MLC 64 77 65 80 / 20 50 30 60 BVO 63 78 65 80 / 10 40 20 60 FYV 61 80 63 79 / 10 20 30 60 BYV 63 81 64 78 / 0 20 20 60 MKO 64 78 65 80 / 10 40 30 60 MIO 64 80 65 79 / 10 30 30 60 F10 64 77 65 80 / 10 40 30 60 HHW 64 76 65 80 / 20 50 30 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21