976 FXUS64 KSHV 200027 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 727 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021 .AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex terminals, an axis of showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms stretches from KELD to near KAEX, moving to the NNW at 20KT. S/SE winds will prevail this cycle with 10-15KT and 20KT gusts. Stronger gusts from S will accompany downpours. The HRRR model carries this activity to the W with all terminals being affected by some extent during the overnight hours. Little change in the pattern this cycle with more convection likely throughout our Thursday. Fri/Sat are looking better for us. /24/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday night/ This evening, showers and thunderstorms will continue to progress across the southern and eastern portions of our area in the wake of a decaying MCS shifting out of SW AR. This lingering precipitation will be reinforced by an upper-level low propagating out of south TX into north/central TX, ahead of a deep upper-level trough across the Southern Plains. Some of this precip could be locally heavy, which may present a continued risk of flash flooding in areas of already saturated soil. The current Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect until 7:00 AM Thursday, and is not expected to be extended further at this time. Will continue to monitor closely through the evening and overnight. Continued flow out of the southeast at 5-10 kts will prevail through the short term period, maintaining an influx of Gulf moisture keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s throughout. Followed NBM guidance for temperatures, keeping lows in the mid-upper 60s tonight and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday afternoon. The aforementioned upper level trough will remain with us through the day Thursday, thanks to the upper level ridge to our east forming a pseudo-Omega block. Thus, precip chances will remain across the Four-State region through tomorrow night. Made some minor edits to limit and smooth extremely high/low PoP values. Otherwise followed NBM guidance. /26/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021/ LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/ The general trend going forward into the weekend will be for warmer and drier conditions as an upper level ridge across the eastern U.S. continues to slowly migrate farther westward, but we won't be done with convection quite yet on Friday. That's because our persistent mid level low to the west will recenter itself down along the lower TX coast and continue to advect Gulf moisture northward across our region. As it does, this moisture will combine with diurnal heating to generate showers and thunderstorms through Friday into Friday evening before gradually diminishing with loss of heating overnight. As the upper level ridge axis continues to shift farther west into our region over the weekend, expect high temperatures to climb into lower to mid 80s on Saturday and Sunday with rain chances generally confined to our western zones farther removed from the center of the ridge axis. However, rain chances will continue to gradually lower later in the weekend with just slight to low chances PoPs by Sunday as the ridge axis becomes more influential areawide. The trend of warmer and near summer-like temperatures will continue into the first half of next week as moist low-level southerly flow prevails. Convection should be generally limited to diurnal shwrs and storms although a weak shortwave and associated cold front will attempt to approach our region from the Southern Plains and could aid in convective development by mid week. /19/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1246 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 69 82 68 81 / 70 70 60 70 MLU 68 82 65 84 / 70 70 30 40 DEQ 66 79 67 80 / 70 70 60 60 TXK 69 81 69 80 / 70 70 60 60 ELD 66 80 64 83 / 70 70 40 40 TYR 69 81 70 80 / 70 70 50 70 GGG 67 80 68 79 / 70 70 50 80 LFK 67 81 68 79 / 70 70 60 80 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ050-051- 059>061-070>072. LA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for LAZ001>005- 010>013-017>020. OK...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ077. TX...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ 24/26/19