856 FXUS65 KABQ 190522 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1122 PM MDT Tue May 18 2021 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Upper low circulation centered over east central NM at 05Z to drift ewd into the TX/OK panhandles by 23Z, taking wrap around precipitation over NM with it. At the same time, drier air to push into wrn NM. Lcl mt obscurations in MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys in precipitation and br will continue through 15Z before cigs/vsbys improve although showers and a few thunderstorms will continue mainly from the Contdvd ewd. && .PREV DISCUSSION...233 PM MDT Tue May 18 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Another day, another round of showers and thunderstorms. Coverage is greater today, impacting most of northern and central NM. But the storms are not as vigorous this afternoon. Several strong storms have been noted near the TX border, and a few severe storms may yet develop through the afternoon and early evening. The upper closed low in north central NM will crawl southeast tonight and Wednesday, finally exiting the state in the afternoon. A couple of weak upper level troughs will circulate around the main low, keeping it from moving much, and keeping precipitation going through the night and Wednesday. Wednesday will not be quite as cool as today, and Thursday will be noticeably warmer, thanks to a weak ridge of high pressure. Thursday will also be the driest day of the week with any convection confined to the northeast. A big storm will be moving into the Great Basin Thursday and will be the main weather player through the weekend. Winds will increase Friday through the weekend, with dry conditions in the west, but the east should be active as a dry line sloshes back and forth each day and night. A drying trend is expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... Active weather continues through tonight as a closed upper low traverses west to east over northern NM. Low clouds gave way to clearer conditions allowing for daytime heating to occur over the eastern plains this morning. Afternoon convection has already begun along remnant surface boundaries east of the Pecos, while a vortlobe along the southern periphery of the upper low is helping generate larger scale ascent along the east slopes of the central mountain chain. The combination of instability and shear is best overlapped along the TX border over Union, Harding, and Quay Counties and storms look to be chasing this area through the rest of the afternoon. Short-lived strong to severe supercells could result with hail and wind being the main threats. CAMs are also suggesting the convection along the east slopes of the central mountain chain will become more linearly organized as it moves into northeastern NM this evening, continuing chances for a severe wind threat through this evening. Western NM meanwhile is seeing dense overcast keeping temperatures on the cool side. Models are showing a speed max west of the upper low center generating on-and-off showers and slight chance of thunderstorms going west of the Rio Grande through this evening. Erratic gusty winds will be the main threat here. Overall, precipitation activity is expected to taper off after midnight with much lesser coverage and lower clouds developing in some spots north of I-40. The upper low will continue to progress slowly eastward over northeastern NM Wednesday, gradually opening to a trough. Remnant moisture behind and northwest flow setting up aloft will allow another round of light to moderate showers over the northern mountains Wednesday afternoon. This activity will end by Wednesday night as a shortwave ridge moves in from the west. LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... Thursday should be the driest day of the week as a weak ridge crosses NM. It could be completely dry, but there is evidence that some low level moisture will be left behind the current storm, and along with moderate instability and shear, some thunderstorms could form in the northeast. And if they do form, the could get strong or even severe. Two opposite weather regimes will set up Friday through Sunday as a big storm drops into the Great Basin Thursday, then stalls for about 48 hours before lifting northeast Sunday. Winds will increase area wide, but the west will be dry and warm, while the east will be under the gun thanks to a dryline that will move back and forth each night and day. The potential for severe weather will exist each afternoon and evening. As the storm lifts away from NM early next week, we should see a bit of drying in the east, but not completely dry. A warming trend is expected Wednesday and especially Thursday, with Thursday likely the warmest day of the forecast period. A slow downward trend is expected late this week through the weekend. Then another warmup early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Active weather with on-and-off shower activity continues through this evening over the northern half of the state, with erratic gusty winds and brief bouts of moderate wetting rainfall being the main impacts. Storms across the eastern plains through this evening will be stronger, potentially severe, with lightning, strong to damaging gusts, and hail being the main threats. The very slow upper low will still be over northeastern NM Wednesday with showers continuing to favor the northern mountains during the afternoon. Thursday will be a transition day before strengthening southwest flow sets up a dry and windy dynamic west of the Rio Grande and a more moist afternoon thunderstorm dynamic over the eastern plains Friday through the weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather looks favorable over western NM during this time. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$