690 FXUS64 KSJT 160904 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 404 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Looks like most areas will see dry weather today. For this morning, Hi-Res models indicate scattered showers and thunderstorms across the far eastern counties for a few hours and then move east of the area by 17Z. For this afternoon, looks like some mid to upper level ridging will increase the cap strength and result in mainly dry weather. Isolated storms may fire along the dryline west of our area across the Permain Basin and Trans Pecos late this afternoon and a storm or two make it east across mainly the western Concho Valley early the evening. Overall, the severe weather threat looks low but non zero through 12Z Monday. For tonight, going with mainly a dry forecast. Scattered showers and storms may make it south into the Northern Big Country after midnight and going with slight chance to chance Pops. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows tonight will be in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Best chances of rain still look to be Monday Night into Tuesday as the upper level trough axis inches closer. Models also still have their differences, mostly due to the model differences in how each handle convection today, tonight, and Monday. Best large scale lift will be with the upper level trough axis, but smaller scale mesoscale boundaries and MCV's will also be an important factor. Could see a severe threat out of this, especially across those areas that can see a little bit afternoon sun to increase instability. But main concern will be a heavy rain threat. ECMWF is certainly showing much heavier totals of almost all of the area, while the GFS really keeps the heaviest rain just east of the area. Some of the high res models that go out far enough show something in between, which is probably the best solution for now. Will continue to have highest POPs for Monday Night into Tuesday and will highlight the heavy rain and flooding potential. Rest of the week and into next weekend remains unsettled as another upper level trough dives in to replace the first and puts West Central Texas back into favorable southwest flow aloft. Will continue carrying decent POPs through much of the extended. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Expect MVFR ceilings to develop at all the terminals by 08-09Z and continue this morning. The ceilings will rise to low end VFR by early afternoon Sunday and probably scatter out by later afternoon. Also, going with VCTS/VCSH between 06-09Z due to weakening convection moving slowly east into the western part of our area. The winds will be from the south with a few gusts to near 20 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 80 66 84 63 / 40 20 30 70 San Angelo 85 67 88 64 / 20 10 20 70 Junction 83 68 86 65 / 30 20 20 50 Brownwood 78 65 82 65 / 50 20 30 60 Sweetwater 82 65 86 62 / 30 20 30 70 Ozona 84 68 87 64 / 20 5 20 60 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...21