521 FXUS65 KABQ 140906 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 306 AM MDT Fri May 14 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Spotty showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the southwest and south-central mountains this afternoon. A few storms are also possible for far northeast and east-central portions of the state. Drier air moves in for the weekend with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and breezy to locally windy conditions, especially Sunday. A slow moving storm system remain on track to bring an increase in chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly east early next week. High temperatures will remain near seasonal averages. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... A low amplitude ridge will translate east across the region through Saturday, with continued warming today. Southerly flow in the lower boundary layer is bringing improved moisture with surface dewpoints on the uptrend. With higher dewpoints and increasing temperatures comes greater instability and improved coverage of afternoon/evening showers and storms. That said, PWATs are unimpressive and generally range from 0.25-0.60" across the area. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely, trending drier along/west of the RGV. The SPC day1 convective outlook shows portions of eastern NM in a marginal risk for severe storms, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat given dCAPE values approaching 2000J/kg. Similar setup Saturday, but a backdoor front will push into the northeast plains/highlands and bring improved moisture and a more favorable shear environment for late day severe storms. The latest NAM is advertising sbCAPE in excess of 2000J/kg, LIs of -7 and 0-6km bulk shear of 35kts across portions of Union and Colfax Counties late Saturday, which should be more than sufficient for a severe storm or two. LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... Dry air pushes in Saturday night on southwest flow aloft ahead of closed low moving over central CA. Despite the southwest flow aloft, rain cooled air from eastern CO and the southern plains results in low- level easterlies for northeast NM Sunday. Afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are forecast for far northeast NM Sunday. Elsewhere, southwest winds will be on the increase Sunday afternoon thanks to the low to the west. 00Z model suite has trended back drier for western and central areas for Monday and Tuesday. Single digit relative humidity at 500 mb wraps around the low early Monday. This drier air aloft, however, could make for severe storms in northeast NM Monday afternoon and evening. Tuesday remains on track for the wettest day of the next 7 for the northeast third as the upper low moves overhead and helps draw in low-level moisture from the east. The low shifts east of NM Wednesday and the GFS and ECMWF agree that a ridge of high pressure translates in from the west on Wednesday. Slight chances for afternoon and evening convection remain across far northeast NM Wednesday with dry southwest flow expected Thursday. 11/33 && .FIRE WEATHER... Potential for ignitions are on the uptrend through Saturday given an expected increase in lightning activity and a mix of wet/dry storms. A Pacific low will approach Sunday and spread stronger winds and a drier airmass over central and western New Mexico. The potential for critical fire weather conditions will be on the uptrend Sunday, but forecast wind speeds are currently below critical threshold. The combination of the Pacific low and a backdoor front will bring cooler conditions on Tuesday with good chances for wetting rain favoring the northeast quarter of the state. Medium range model solutions depart from mid to late next week with the handling of a closed low over the Great Basin. The 00Z ECMWF and Canadian are favored at this time and would bring stronger winds around the base of the upper low across our region, introducing the potential for critical fire weather conditions to central and western New Mexico Thu/Fri. 11 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period. A round of isolated to scattered high based convection may impact central and eastern terminals late Friday afternoon and evening with strong/erratic wind gusts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 86 48 84 47 / 0 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 80 38 79 40 / 5 0 5 10 Cuba............................ 80 47 78 46 / 5 0 10 10 Gallup.......................... 82 41 82 38 / 5 0 5 0 El Morro........................ 78 41 79 37 / 10 5 10 5 Grants.......................... 81 43 81 39 / 20 5 10 5 Quemado......................... 78 45 78 40 / 20 10 10 0 Magdalena....................... 77 51 77 49 / 40 20 30 10 Datil........................... 76 46 75 42 / 30 20 20 0 Reserve......................... 83 40 81 37 / 20 10 10 0 Glenwood........................ 86 52 84 47 / 20 10 5 0 Chama........................... 74 37 74 37 / 5 0 5 10 Los Alamos...................... 78 51 77 53 / 10 0 10 10 Pecos........................... 77 48 77 48 / 10 5 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 73 44 73 44 / 10 0 20 10 Red River....................... 67 37 66 39 / 20 0 20 20 Angel Fire...................... 69 30 68 31 / 10 0 30 20 Taos............................ 78 39 77 43 / 10 0 10 10 Mora............................ 74 41 73 42 / 10 0 30 10 Espanola........................ 83 50 82 52 / 10 0 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 79 51 78 51 / 10 5 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 82 47 82 48 / 10 5 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 82 57 82 54 / 20 10 10 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 84 56 84 55 / 20 10 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 86 52 86 51 / 20 10 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 85 56 84 55 / 10 10 10 5 Belen........................... 85 53 85 52 / 20 20 10 5 Bernalillo...................... 87 53 86 52 / 10 10 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 86 51 85 50 / 20 10 10 5 Corrales........................ 86 54 85 52 / 10 10 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 86 51 85 49 / 20 10 10 5 Placitas........................ 82 55 82 53 / 20 10 10 5 Rio Rancho...................... 85 55 84 53 / 10 10 10 5 Socorro......................... 85 54 86 53 / 30 20 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 76 52 76 49 / 20 10 10 5 Tijeras......................... 79 51 79 46 / 20 10 10 5 Edgewood........................ 80 47 80 44 / 20 10 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 80 44 81 43 / 20 10 20 10 Clines Corners.................. 77 47 77 45 / 20 5 20 10 Mountainair..................... 77 49 78 46 / 20 20 20 5 Gran Quivira.................... 78 48 78 47 / 20 20 20 5 Carrizozo....................... 79 54 80 55 / 30 30 20 0 Ruidoso......................... 72 49 73 49 / 30 30 30 5 Capulin......................... 75 43 71 43 / 30 10 40 30 Raton........................... 78 41 76 42 / 20 10 30 20 Springer........................ 79 42 79 43 / 10 0 30 10 Las Vegas....................... 77 42 76 43 / 10 5 30 10 Clayton......................... 80 49 77 49 / 30 20 30 30 Roy............................. 79 48 78 47 / 20 10 30 20 Conchas......................... 84 54 85 53 / 20 10 30 20 Santa Rosa...................... 84 52 84 51 / 20 10 30 10 Tucumcari....................... 86 57 86 55 / 20 20 20 20 Clovis.......................... 82 54 82 53 / 20 20 20 20 Portales........................ 83 56 83 56 / 20 20 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 85 57 86 56 / 20 30 20 10 Roswell......................... 86 59 88 57 / 20 30 30 10 Picacho......................... 79 54 82 52 / 40 30 40 5 Elk............................. 78 51 80 51 / 40 30 20 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$