950 FXUS64 KJAN 110556 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1256 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 .UPDATE... Updated for 06Z aviation discussion && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF discussion: Widespread IFR/LIFR category stratus will persist over the forecast area through the morning in the vicinity of a frontal boundary. A slight improvement in ceilings during the afternoon should take place before they drop back down again Tuesday evening. An approaching trough will initiate numerous SHRA/TSRA, especially after daybreak Tuesday, and coverage/intensity should peak during the late afternoon. Surface wind will generally be light with direction depending on the wavering front. /EC/ && .DISCUSSION... A stalled frontal boundary was across our southern zones. Regional radars showed a few storms along and north of this boundary trying to spread east into our western zones from Louisiana. Models suggest this trend will continue tonight but the storms will track into our CWA farther north prior to sunrise. Although a strong storm or two is possible, severe storms are not anticipated. Adjustments were made to pops in the west the remainder of the night. /22/ Prior discussion below: .Tonight and Tuesday...The bulk of the showers and thunderstorms has moved east of the area this afternoon, with only a few showers remaining. Expect mainly dry conditions for most of the area overnight, but there will continue to be a chance for showers or possibly a thunderstorm. The frontal boundary that has been situated over the area will continue to do so on Tuesday. This combined with another short wave, will kick off another round of showers and thunderstorms that will move into the area very early on Tuesday. The storms will increase in coverage and spread from west to east through the morning into the afternoon hours. With sufficient instability, a few storms could become strong to possibly severe, mainly along and south of I-20 Tuesday afternoon. A marginal risk is already being advertised in our graphics and HWO. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s in the Delta, to the mid 60s in the Pine Belt. Highs Tuesday will range from the upper 60s north of the front to low 80s in the south./15/ Tomorrow night through Monday: The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with a stalled cold front across northern Mississippi oriented parallel to zonal flow aloft. A weak wave embedded in the westerlies will help instigate numerous showers and storms tomorrow afternoon that will be ongoing tomorrow night. This activity will continue overnight and into Wednesday morning as the front slowly sags south across the area. Showers may continue to linger across the area, especially south of I-20, Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night before the main trough axis swings into the Lower Mississippi Valley and finally shunts the frontal boundary into the Gulf of Mexico. A limited threat area for flash flooding will be maintained through early Wednesday morning in the HWO/graphics for along and south of I-20 as convection trains within the boundary parallel flow regime. Here, several inches of rain in a short amount of time could lead to localized flooding. A stray shower may linger over eastern Mississippi on Thursday, however, dry weather will return to the area by late week as sprawling high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley in the wake of the departing trough axis. Dry conditions and warming temperatures will continue into the weekend with afternoon highs climbing into the low to mid 80s. /TW/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 63 75 61 69 / 31 87 90 71 Meridian 63 77 60 68 / 22 79 87 72 Vicksburg 61 74 61 69 / 36 88 91 68 Hattiesburg 67 81 66 73 / 22 81 81 82 Natchez 63 78 64 69 / 30 86 86 76 Greenville 58 68 57 66 / 58 78 83 38 Greenwood 58 71 57 68 / 43 78 83 43 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$