860 FXUS64 KTSA 101726 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1226 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. Ongoing MVFR ceilings across NW AR will likely improve in the near term, while lower clouds along with showers and isolated thunderstorms continue along/south of I-40 through mid afternoon. Period of VFR conditions then likely in all areas through 06z or so, by which time lower ceilings will likely begin to spread back north. INcreasing showers and a few thunderstorms become likely by 12z across SE OK and spread northeast through the remainder of the forecast period, with associated deterioration in flight conditions. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1045 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021/ DISCUSSION... Two main areas of forcing ongoing today and resulting in precip development...one near KS/OK border rooted near 700 mb with mainly light rain, and an active frontal zone at the 850 mb level near the Red River. The southern zone has become more active convectively over the past couple of hours as a subtle shortwave interacts, with a few strong and even low-end severe storms noted. This will spread into southeast OK during the late morning and as such have raised thunder chances a category over far southeast OK with morning update. CAM solutions do hint at this area becoming more focused south of the Red River or even weakening through the afternoon, however this will likely become quite active once again tonight. Also had raised POPs along KS border earlier, but consensus remains for this to weaken as well. Other forecast elements look good at this time. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 538 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. MVFR ceilings continue this morning across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Scattered showers look cause to minimal impact at area sites today. Any impactful thunderstorms look to remain south of any local taf sites through tonight. Ceilings are expected to improve by late afternoon into this evening. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 246 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021/ DISCUSSION... Rain and thunder chances thru Tuesday will be the main challenge in the near term, with rain/storm chances next weekend also worth mention. Rain chances increase today in two main zones, one near the KS border along the 700mb front and the other across the south near the 850mb front. While forcing weakens across the north by this afternoon, the 850mb front lying across SE OK will become the main player, with increasing thunder potential by tonight, continuing into Tuesday. An isolated marginally severe hailer is possible down near the Red River. Precip is expected to be more widespread on Tuesday over the forecast area, due to increasing lift from a shortwave trough sliding across the Plains. Thus higher PoPs are warranted. The event should taper off by Wednesday with quiet weather expected Thursday and Friday. An unsettled weather pattern is expected to return by the weekend as warm, humid and unstable air returns to the region. Weaker flow aloft suggests that an organized severe event is not expected. By early next week, the EC and GFS suggest that an upper wave will eject out of the Southwest and into the southern Plains. Assuming these progs are close (a big assumption at this time range), a more organized severe weather event would be expected. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 65 50 63 50 / 20 20 60 30 FSM 68 51 64 51 / 30 10 60 40 MLC 65 52 61 51 / 40 30 70 50 BVO 63 45 62 49 / 30 10 50 30 FYV 65 44 63 46 / 20 10 50 40 BYV 63 45 61 46 / 20 10 40 40 MKO 65 49 61 50 / 20 20 60 40 MIO 62 46 62 49 / 60 10 40 30 F10 65 50 61 50 / 30 20 70 40 HHW 64 54 61 53 / 50 50 80 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ AVIATION.....14