028 
FXUS64 KTSA 080758
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
258 AM CDT Sat May 8 2021

.DISCUSSION...
The main forecast challenges this morning are the multiple rounds
of thunderstorms expected this weekend and through the first half
of next week, including some severe weather potential this
weekend.

Currently, a few light showers that developed late Friday evening
within a region of low level warm advection remain across parts of
western Arkansas, with additional thunderstorms across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri poised to move into northwest Arkansas
later this morning. The expected northwest Arkansas showers and
thunderstorms will likely shift east of the area by mid morning,
and with a strong cap expected across much of the region, dry 
weather should persist thereafter through mid evening. Today
should be the warmest and windiest day of the period, with gusts
near 40 mph likely across parts of northeast Oklahoma. Will not
issue a Wind Advisory for any part of the forecast area with this
package, given the marginal nature, but will pass along concerns
to the day shift.

This evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop along than
approaching cold front to our north in Kansas and Missouri, as an
upper level trough swings into the Plains. These thunderstorms may
begin to affect parts of northeast Oklahoma late this evening but
more likely early tomorrow morning. Widespread severe weather is
looking less of a certainty this far south and east, but isolated
damaging wind and even near severe hail could occur given the
forecast instability and wind fields. Additional thunderstorm
development along the front is likely to occur late morning and
into the afternoon tomorrow, affecting areas generally along and
southeast of I-44, also featuring a large hail and damaging wind
threat through late afternoon. Cooler temperatures will follow the
front, with many areas seeing highs tomorrow 10 to 15 degrees
cooler than those expected today.

Zonal flow aloft will develop across the region and persist
into the early part of next week, stalling the front not too far 
to our south. This will keep the highest shower and thunderstorm 
chances largely isolated to southeast Oklahoma and perhaps into 
parts of west central Arkansas. Expect a slight uptick in showers
farther north than this on Monday and again Tuesday as a couple 
of waves move through the area within the mean upper level flow
pattern. Ensemble solutions for the upper air pattern in the
Wednesday and Thursday time frame support the quicker cessation of
showers and thunderstorms offered by the ECMWF as opposed to the
wetter GFS. Overall, below normal temperatures should be expected
through the middle of next week, at least after today.

A more amplified upper air pattern should develop late in the week
and into the weekend, leading to warmer conditions and increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  62  70  49 /  10  30  10  10 
FSM   83  67  75  50 /  10  30  60  20 
MLC   82  67  73  51 /  10  20  40  20 
BVO   83  58  67  47 /  10  30  10  10 
FYV   79  62  68  45 /  10  40  50  10 
BYV   79  63  67  45 /  30  30  50  10 
MKO   80  64  70  48 /  10  20  30  10 
MIO   80  60  67  47 /  10  50  20  10 
F10   82  64  71  49 /  10  20  20  10 
HHW   82  68  76  55 /  10  20  60  30 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....22