921 FXUS64 KLUB 051533 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1033 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021 .UPDATE... Updated grids to include the potential of showers and thunderstorms for the southeastern Texas Panhandle this evening. A shortwave is expected to move near the area this evening, with a front moving south through the area, developing precipitation over the Texas Panhandle. This activity will possibly skim our northern counties. Though it may bring some precipitation, dry low-levels and quick storm motion will limit rain potential. However, the high-based nature of the activity will support a risk of downbursts. The main threat with this activity will be wind gusts up to 50 mph, with a more conditional risk of small hail. GKendrick && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 646 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021/ AVIATION... VFR and dry with modest surface low pressure trough leading to breezy southerly winds late this morning and afternoon. Low level jet may impact KPVW later tonight with Low Level Wind Shear. RMcQueen PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021/ SHORT TERM... Mostly quiet weather is expected to continue today and tonight with dry northwest flow aloft and a slowly approaching upper ridge axis just to our west. A low amplitude upper level disturbance will pass to the north later today and tonight, with expected thunderstorm generation from eastern Colorado through the northern and eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma perhaps skirting the northern part of Childress County where low thunderstorm chances continue this evening. Modest shear but low CAPE will limit thunderstorm impacts, though steep lapse rates could generate a few strong outflow wind gusts well north of our area. Otherwise look for modest low level southerly flow developing today and high temperatures climbing near or slightly warmer than normal for early May: lower to mid 80s. A weak frontal/outflow boundary emanating from the thunderstorms later today and tonight is expected to sag southward through the Panhandle this evening, and the remainder of the area later tonight leading to light to modest east or northeast breezes. A seasonally cool night will occur with lows mostly upper 40s to lower 50s. RMcQueen LONG TERM... Northwesterly flow aloft will give way to upper ridging tomorrow through Friday. Models have started to play down the possibility for dryline convection late Friday into early Saturday, especially the GFS. Models begin convective development across central New Mexico during the afternoon with convection coming to an end near the Texas/New Mexico state line. The GFS, unlike the ECMWF, does bring some convection into our western zones before dissipating. The most notable difference with the current run of the GFS vs previous runs is having a stronger upper ridging thus inhibiting further convective development. The ECMWF continues to show a stronger upper ridge and has been the most consistent. Models do agree on surface lee troughing Friday which will allow for breezy conditions. Upper flow will mostly flatten Saturday as a Pacific front pushes through the region providing additional breezy conditions along with possible elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Models bring a secondary front through the region by Sunday as a shortwave trough pushes through the Central Plains eastward. Surface flow will remain mostly out of the east by early next week as upper troughing amplifies over the western US as an upper low develops over the Pacific Northwest. We could see some light rain as the upper trough moves eastward through late Monday into Tuesday as the eastwardly surface flow brings surface moisture back into the region and isentropic lift develops. Depending on timing of the upper lift rainfall could be more moderate and widespread than with isentropic lift alone. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 10/99