247 FXUS64 KMAF 031912 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 212 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 .DISCUSSION... Cooler conditions are expected the next few days before hot temperatures and a chance for storms return late this week. Currently, surface observations show a cold front stretched across the central Permian Basin and SE NM. This front has stalled due to strong surface heating and height falls ahead of an upper trough over NM. Ahead of the front, temperatures have warmed well into the 80's with some 90's across the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys amid downslope, westerly winds. The very dry air and strong winds have again brought some fire weather concerns. Find more details below. Hi-res models show storms developing over the next few hours along and just behind the cold front across our northern counties. The highest coverage of storms will be north of our area, but storms are likely along and north of a Hobbs to Lamesa to Snyder line. The main threat will be large hail and damaging winds. These storms should quickly move out of the area this evening as the cold front surges back south. Gusty winds and much cooler conditions are expected behind the front tonight into Tuesday morning. High winds will develop through Guadalupe Pass through the morning hours so have the High Wind Warning in effect there. A beautiful day is expected Tuesday with highs generally in the mid to upper 70's with light winds. An upper ridge builds in midweek with temperatures rebounding to seasonal levels. Another weak front may sneak in Thursday with very little fanfare. The ridge breaks down Friday as a shortwave moves across the area. This could allow for a few storms to develop along the dryline over the higher terrain. Dry conditions and very hot temperatures look to return this weekend with highs mostly in the 90's. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated Fire Weather is currently confined to the higher terrain and portions of west Texas where there is a gusty west wind and critical RH. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for this region until early this evening. Fire danger remains low overall as 100-hr fuel moisture is above the 50th percentile due to recent precipitation. A cold front currently located across our northern counties will clear the region this evening. Behind the front, RH will remain above critical tomorrow with a light north wind. Fire weather is not expected for the rest of this week as RH remains at or above critical and winds remain light. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 54 74 51 83 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 50 74 52 88 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 59 83 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 54 77 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 47 69 55 82 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 48 72 50 83 / 20 0 0 0 Marfa 45 76 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 53 74 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 53 74 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 52 78 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 5 AM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. && $$ 91/29