609 
FXUS65 KFGZ 280916
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
216 AM MST Wed Apr 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Rain and snow showers continue from Flagstaff 
southeast to the White Mountains today. High pressure builds into
the region Thursday through Saturday, bringing very warm and dry 
conditions to the region. Gusty winds and slightly cooler 
temperatures return on Sunday and last into the start of next 
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A few showers overnight mainly along Mogollon Rim southeastward
into the White Mountains, with the rest of northern Arizona 
remaining dry. Shower activity decrease through the overnight as 
an upper-level low over southern Arizona slowly moves eastward. 
Showers redevelop again later today with a surge of wrap around 
moisture on the backside of the low, mainly along and northeast of
the Mogollon Rim. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible with
some of the showers this afternoon. Breezy northerly winds are 
expected for the afternoon as the upper-level low departs.

Dry air moves into the region and heights begin to rise as a ridge 
begins to build into the southwest on Thursday. Temperatures also 
then start to warm significantly, with highs soring well-above 
average for much of northern Arizona. By Saturday, temperatures 
across the higher terrain look to reach the mid-70s, with the lower 
elevations climbing into the mid-80s to mid-90s.

Saturday the ridge begins to break down as a trough begins to 
descend down the West Coast and into the Rockies. Temperatures 
remain warm on Saturday, but a return of windy conditions is 
expected once again. As the system draws closer winds increase 
further and temperatures start to cool for Sunday and Monday.
Critical fire weather conditions look possible Sunday with strong
winds and dry air mass in place. At this point, outside of a few 
showers mainly over far northern Arizona, a wetting preciptation 
as the trough passes looks unlikely with much of the moisture 
passing to our north. Only a handful of EPS members show light 
precipitation while the remainder as well as nearly all the GEFS 
members show no precipitation.

As the trough moves east of the area on Tuesday, guidance signals a 
return to weak ridging off the Pacific, continuing warm and dry 
weather through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package..Primarily VFR conditions are 
expected for the next 24 hours. Scattered showers will persist 
across eastern Arizona through this evening. Activity could extend 
as far west as KFLG and KPRC this afternoon. An isolated 
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Local MVFR conditions will be 
possible in heavier showers. Northwest to northeast winds 5-15 kts 
with gusts 20-25 kts through sunset. Winds remain locally breezy 
southwest of the higher terrain tonight. Aviation discussion not 
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Shower activity will mainly be confined to east-
central Arizona today. Look for a warming trend through Thursday as 
high pressure builds in. Breezy northwest through northeast winds 
today becoming light on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...High temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above 
normal through the period. Light winds Friday will increase steadily 
from the southwest this weekend. Critical Fire Weather conditions 
are possible Sunday, especially northeast of the Mogollon Rim.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...TPS
FIRE WEATHER...TPS


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff