521 FXUS64 KAMA 250908 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 408 AM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 .SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow Night... Synopsis: Very warm and breezy to windy conditions will lead to fire weather concerns today and tomorrow. Details: Latest WV imagery reveals an upper level low moving towards the northern CA coast as a low amplitude ridge over the Great Plains was helping maintain zonal flow over the Panhandles. A large area of upper level moisture was moving out ahead of the upper low across the Great Basin, but a few high clouds were moving off the higher terrain in NM and CO. Closer to the surface, VAD winds indicated a strong low level jet of 50 to 60 knots in place over KAMA which has lead to some wind gusts over 20 knots at times this morning despite nocturnal inversion in place. Temperatures were very mild as of 0800z, with most locations in the 50s. Through the day today, the 500mb westerlies will stay in the 30 to 40 knot range with an increasing southerly component starting this evening as the upper low moves inland over CA/OR. The cross barrier flow will help induce lee pressure falls with a surface low pressure center of around 991 mb in eastern CO by 00z Monday. This will result in breezy to windy conditions today across the combined Panhandles, east of a diffuse dryline near the western OK state line. The winds may ramp up pretty quickly this morning as mixing takes place, however Bufkit profiles suggest max winds at the top of the BL never exceed 38 knots as the nocturnal jet kinematically decreases. Thus, we may get a little influence early on from the low level jet, but not the full effect before the surface pressure gradient becomes the main driver and sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots become dominant with gusts near 30 to 35 knots. The increasing downslope winds will help mix very warm 850mb temperatures down to the surface beneath a low level thermal ridge (LLTR). Upper 80s to low 90s look to be common by mid afternoon, which is about 15 degrees above normal. The airmass is also quite dry which will lead to critical fire weather concerns (see more below). Tomorrow will be very similar to today with two exceptions. First is the increase in upper level cloud cover as the subtropical moisture plume shifts east into the area ahead of the upper low. Second is the increase in 700mb to 500mb winds as a mid level jet streak of 50 to 60 knots moves out of NM ahead of the main wave which should be centered over NV by 00z Tuesday. These two items introduce a bit more uncertainty for high temperatures and peak wind speeds, as mixing may not be as efficient due to reduced insolation. Sustained winds should be at least as strong as Sunday given similar pressure gradient in place, but max gusts may be higher with stronger winds in upper half of BL, but will depend on mixing. For now, keeping max gusts a bit higher than Sunday with a peak of around 45 mph. Temperatures may be a degree or two lower in some places based on clouds as well, but the stronger downslope winds could help temperatures over achieve in some places. The irony is that record highs are lower Monday, so temperatures won't have to get as warm to break records. For instance, 92 is the record high for AMA on Monday (1927), but it is 99 on Sunday (2012). All of this will lead to critical fire weather for most locations (see more below). Ward && .FIRE WEATHER... Critical fire weather is expected today in the western and central Texas Panhandle, and across all of the Oklahoma Panhandle where Red Flag Warnings have been issued. This will occur as southwest winds increase in response to a pressure gradient across the area. Twenty foot winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts near 35 mph are expected from mid morning through the evening. Relative humidity values will fall into the single digits across the western and central zones, with teens in the east as temperatures rise into the upper 80s to low 90s with strong mixing. These very warm temperatures are due to a notable low level thermal ridge which will expand across the Panhandles into western OK. Given the lack of any strong low level jets after the morning hours, IA fires are most favored. Fire activity may be mitigated in the eastern zones where areas saw some rainfall recently, but will still see elevated fire weather with RFTIs around 2. Areas in the central and western zones could see RFTI values around 4 to 6, with some 7s in the far western Panhandles. TFS ERC percentiles seem to be the most reasonable right now and better reflect the areas of transitional green and recent rains / overnight RH recovery. Conditions should be very similar tomorrow with the addition of slightly stronger jet level winds and more high level clouds. The increasing jet level winds suggest higher gust potential tomorrow, but the high clouds suggest slightly cooler and less efficient mixing, so maybe gusts will be tempered some. Models do hint at drier air with RH values falling a point or two lower than Sunday, so overall Monday has RFTIs of 4 to 7 with isolated 8sand more receptive fuels. Fire Weather Watch will continue for all but far eastern Texas Panhandle. Ward && .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday... There is the potential for a prolonged chance of precipitation for a good amount of the Panhandles. Although global model data does diverge further out, current 25/00Z data shows that we still have a chance for a few days of precipitation. Starting on Tuesday, latest 25/00Z model data are already not in an accord. GFS/NAM/CMC is showing an upper level low moving ESE along The AZ/Mexico border throughout the day on Tuesday. ECMWF is slower and has the center of the low further northwest near Las Vegas moving into western AZ throughout the day. Downstream of this well defined upper level low pressure, H500-250 UL divergence is well pronounced over the Panhandles with a developing jet over far west Texas extending into the Texas South Plains within all of the model data. The majority of the data given the further SE center of the H500 low will have much stronger H850-700 southwest flow advecting into the Panhandles into the day on Tuesday. As a result, strong SW winds will likely push the main dryline well into western Oklahoma by Tuesday afternoon with the co-located moisture transport remaining across western/central Oklahoma. With the exception of the far SE Panhandles of a chance of thunderstorms, the remainder of the Panhandles will have strong SW winds and potential fire weather conditions continuing from earlier in the week. In the solution with less precipitation chances, especially in the western Panhandles, winds will be quite strong as a deep mixing profile develops in the wake of the dryline moving east. Winds could be strong enough to warrant some headlines. However, the further west centered H500 low pressure solution Tuesday afternoon for the ECMWF and NBM data counteracts the SW flow shifting the dryline with a good S/SE surface wind across the east with good moisture transport. This will help to develop thunderstorms across the eastern and portions of the central Panhandles by Tuesday afternoon. The more favorable precipitation solution shows 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE for the eastern Panhandles and with very well defined shear throughout column, supercell development with large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible for areas along and east of the dryline. Going from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a cold front will move SE into the Panhandles, and with a more moist profile as it hits the dryline in the more favorable precipitation model, a second round of thunderstorms will be possible. Going into Wednesday, perturbations around the main H500 low for the 25/00Z GFS/NAM/CMC will bring additional chances of thunderstorms for the Panhandles. Starting Wednesday night, as a deepening British Columbia UL low enhances the main ageostrophic flow, a ridge downstream will build northeast into the Sierra Nevada. This will displace the now cut off low further south into Mexico bringing precipitation to an end by Thursday morning for the Panhandles in the latest GFS/NAM/CMC solutions. This same feature is also illustrated in the higher total QPF run of the ECMWF, however, the timing is around 24-36 hours delayed along with a lower amplitude ridge. This results in precipitation chances for the Panhandles continuing through at least Friday morning before the center of the ECMWF shifts south into Mexico and its moisture transport shuts off for the region. Temperatures throughout the forecast period, even with the cold front passing through Tuesday night, should remain at or above average. Dry conditions will most likely return for all of the Panhandles as we go into the start of the coming weekend. Meccariello && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 89 57 90 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 5 Beaver OK 89 60 91 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 5 Boise City OK 87 47 84 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 5 Borger TX 90 61 93 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 5 Boys Ranch TX 90 55 90 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 5 Canyon TX 89 55 90 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 5 Clarendon TX 89 60 88 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dalhart TX 90 45 85 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 5 Guymon OK 89 54 90 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 5 Hereford TX 89 53 89 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 5 Lipscomb TX 88 60 88 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 5 Pampa TX 87 60 89 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 5 Shamrock TX 88 57 87 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 10 Wellington TX 89 57 88 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 20 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson... Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter... Randall...Roberts...Sherman. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson... Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson... Moore...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall... Sherman. OK...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas. && $$ 7/29