703 FXUS61 KRLX 250643 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 243 AM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread rain will continue through tonight. High pressure to start the next work week. Unsettled weather returns for the latter half of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1010 PM Saturday... Made some slight adjustments to precipitation chances tonight to better represent current radar. Overall, current forecast remains on track. As of 730 PM Saturday... Rain continues areawide this evening as the low pressure system continues to move along to the south of the area. Still expecting most of the rain to gradually move out throughout the night. Slightly lowered hourly temperatures and bumped up dewpoint temperatures for the next few hours as the rain is keeping the area on the cooler side this evening. Otherwise, current forecast remains on track. As of 225 PM Saturday... Rain streaming in from the southwest will continue to overtake the forecast area this afternoon as low pressure ejects out of the Mississippi Valley. The center of circulation is progged to remain south of the CWA, but the northern rain shield will extend into northern West Virginia by this evening before beginning to shift eastward overnight. By daybreak, the bulk of the rain will have progressed into the Delmarva region, leaving us with residual showers along the higher terrain Sunday morning. Dry conditions then return areawide in the afternoon and will likely prevail for the first half of the work week. With rain now invading from the south, afternoon temperatures will struggle to reach their projected high supported by central guidance. A few spots in our northern territories may skirt above 60 degrees today before rain encroaches, but otherwise most areas will have already achieved their high today at the time of writing. Clouds will inhibit much of a drop in temperatures overnight, but once skies clear out Sunday afternoon, we should see a decent warm up into the 60s to round out the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Sunday... Dry conditions with a quick warming trend are expected through mid- week as 90th percentile mid and upper heights build into the region. Despite a chilly start Monday morning, highs for much of the lower elevations are expected to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s (mid 50s mountains) by Monday afternoon - near normal values for this time of the year. Tuesday is expected to be the warmest day with highs in the lower elevations in the lower 80s (upper 60s mountains) - around 10 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 240 AM Sunday... EPS/GEFS ensemble members are in general consensus in a northern stream disturbance arriving in the Pacific Northwest today, crossing the Southern Rockies by midday Tuesday and approaching the Mississippi Valley by early Wednesday. This yields an eastward shift of the upper level ridge overhead during the day Wednesday as well as opening up the taps on Gulf moisture amid increasing low level southwesterly flow. Could see a few showers as early as Wednesday morning across southeast Ohio at the nose of increasing H850, but better chances for mainly diurnal driven showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. We continue to see very poor consistency in EPS/GEFS ensemble members as well as the operational EC/GFS suite Thursday and beyond with the main sticking points being: potential northern stream split flow with the northern branch yielding a weak disturbance crossing the Upper Great Lakes Thursday, southern extent and potential loss of the southern split of polar front jet support of the aforementioned PacNW diving down into the desert southwest, and associated uncertainty with amplitude of the Bermuda high in response. In general, unsettled weather is expected for at least Thursday and Friday, potentially lingering into the weekend depending on how long it takes upper troughing to shift out of the region. Given the wide ensemble spreads, do not see a compelling reason to stray from central blending model guidance at this time. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 210 AM Sunday... Widespread rainfall has pulled out of the area as low pressure shifts eastward, with some scattered showers remaining. Significant aviation impacts are currently ongoing, with terminals ranging from LIFR to MVFR. This trend should continue through the rest of the overnight period, with both ceilings and visibility being an issue. Conditions will gradually improve during the day Sunday from west to east. What starts as LIFR/IFR at daybreak Sunday, should become MVFR by early afternoon for all terminals, with BKW and EKN taking the longest to improve. CKB, CRW, HTS, and PKB should improve to VFR by late afternoon, with BKW and EKN taking until early evening. VFR conditions should persist from then through Monday afternoon. Surface winds for the overnight period through the day Sunday back slightly to a general WNW heading at 5-10 kts, with up to 15 kts at the higher elevations. Gusts up to 30 kts are possible across the higher terrain. Sustained/gusts ease Sunday night for most of the area, with the higher terrain still having the possibility for gusts up to 25 kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Severity of ceiling/visibility restrictions may vary through this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 04/25/21 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H M L H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L M H M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR expected through midweek. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK NEAR TERM...MEK/CG SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...04