314 FXUS64 KEWX 231952 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 252 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)... Beneficial rainfall ongoing with a cluster of convection between highway 281 and I-10. This cluster will continue to move north and east during the rest of the afternoon, with most of it out of the area by evening. However, a few strong along with perhaps a severe storm could be possible but the primarily impact seems to have transitioned to more of heavy rainfall with some localized spots receiving 1 to 4 inches. Ponding on roadways along with some minor nuisance flooding may be possible with these strongest cells. May see an isolated cell or two try to fire along the dryline from the afternoon through the evening as it has advanced east from the Del Rio area. Cannot rule out a strong storm with these cells but the latest hi-res short term models that do establish any cells have shown some decline in the signal for any severe weather associated with those cells. This activity weakens or moves out of the area quickly once night sets in. The cold front associated with the passing upper level trough will move across the region during the overnight and into the early morning hours Saturday. Some models show the continuation and/or redevelopment of low stratus along with maybe some very patchy fog ahead of the front, especially in the coastal plains. Will leave patchy fog out of the forecast for now. Behind the front, moderate to breezy north winds will usher drier air across the area. The skies will clear with the drier air and result in sunny conditions. With the loss of the cloud cover, temperatures will warm through solar radiation with highs ranging from the low 80s to the mid 90s. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible for locations along and east of the I-10/37 corridor as a result of combination of the low RH values and moderate winds. Mostly clear skies continue into Saturday night with lows in the 50s and 60s. && .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Dry weather will begin the long-term of the forecast as southerly flow begins to return to the area on Sunday. Highs on Sunday and Monday will top out in the upper 80s to middle 90s across the area with the southerly flow. The next storm system will approach the during the middle portion of the week. Trends are slightly slower with the trough axis but there should be a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday for much of our northern counties. Some of this activity could be strong to severe, but the actual severity will be dependent on the timing of any potential storms. The forecast should then dry out for the remainder of the forecast period with temperatures slightly cooler behind the front associated with the mid-week system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 58 83 55 88 61 / 20 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 58 84 53 87 60 / 20 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 60 88 55 89 62 / 20 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 55 80 54 86 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 61 92 59 93 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 56 80 53 86 59 / 20 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 55 92 55 93 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 58 85 54 88 60 / 20 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 64 84 56 87 63 / 30 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 60 88 57 89 62 / 20 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 60 90 57 91 62 / 20 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term/Aviation...Brady Long-Term...Hampshire Decision Support...EWilliams