434 FXUS61 KBUF 231820 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 220 PM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather with moderating temperatures will prevail through Saturday before rain advances towards the region Saturday night. Dramatically warmer conditions are on tap for next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Visible satellite showed the late season snow quickly diminish today. Little to no cloud cover will make for sunny conditions through the afternoon with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Some mid-high level clouds across Lake Erie and Ohio will move into the region tonight. The region remains on the north side of surface high pressure and breezy, west-southwest winds will continue tonight. Lows will fall into the upper 30s to low 40s, and mid 30s across the higher terrain. Dry conditions continue Saturday with warm air advection moving into western NY by afternoon. A mix of sun and clouds expected most of the day before clouds thicken across southwest NY as moisture and warm air advection surge northward. Highs will reach the low to mid 60s across western NY, and upper 50s across the higher terrain. A shortwave trough will track across the lower Ohio Valley while low pressure tracks off the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night. Most 12z guidance has shifted rainfall south and east of western NY with only light amounts brushing the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. A northern stream shortwave trough will track across the Great lakes later Saturday night. A cold front will approach the forecast area overnight. Light rain showers will move into western NY by daybreak Sunday. Rainfall amounts will average less than a tenth of an inch Saturday night. Low temperatures will fall to the low to mid 40s Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... On Sunday, even as main focus for rain shifts to eastern forecast area quickly, a cold front tied to the northern stream system works through shifting winds to west-northwest. Low-level moisture with upslope flow may support some light rain/few rain showers on Sunday over western NY to the Finger Lakes. Went a bit above blended guidance for pops on Sunday and bumped up sky cover some as well to account for this potential. High temps will be cooler than Saturday with readings in the 50s, coolest over the higher terrain. Upslope flow and low-level moisture could support a few showers east of Lake Ontario on Sunday evening. If the moisture does not strip out fast enough, then there is small window of time where it could be cold enough for a few wet snowflakes to mix in over highest terrain of Tug Hill and western Adirondacks. Lows will be chilly again with lows in the upper 20s higher terrain to the low to mid 30s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ...Big warm up expected during this period... Sfc ridge over the eastern Great Lakes Monday shift southeast to the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Tuesday morning, and then slip gradually out to sea while still maintaining dry weather. While this occurs, SW'erly flow also develops across the region on the backside of the sfc ridge as it departs to the Mid-Atlantic. Monday will "likely" be the last of the "cool" days with highs only in the 50s to near 60F across the Lower Lakes. Then the above mentioned SW'er'ly flow will advect a much warmer air mass into the region for Tuesday with H850T jumping to +10C to +13C. This will support a 15F to 20F jump in MaxT's with solid 70s across WNY into the Finger Lakes region. It will be a few degrees cooler east of Lake Ontario with mid and upper 60s. The potential for showers then increases for Wednesday and especially on Thursday as a complex area of low pressures and associated frontal boundaries approach the region. The big story here will still be MaxT's on Thursday, which may potentially climb into the low to mid 80s areawide. What a difference a week makes, highs a week ago were only in the 30s and 40s with accumulating snows! && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions continue through the TAF period (4/24 18Z.) Southwest winds remain elevated through this evening before dropping below 10kts tonight into Saturday morning. Outlook... Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR with showers likely. Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Southwest winds continue on the waters this afternoon and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for Lake Erie and the eastern end of Lake Ontario. Winds will become lighter on the waters Saturday before kicking up again later Sunday behind a cold front. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ044-045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSK NEAR TERM...HSK SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HSK MARINE...HSK/JLA