433 FXUS63 KBIS 231748 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1248 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Little updates needed early this afternoon. Minor adjustments to clouds and winds based on current trends. UPDATE Issued at 952 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Limited changes needed this morning. Cold front continues to progress across the state and will bring cooler temperatures and northerly breezes today. A band of light rain and snow is still possible from north to south today through this evening. Dry air at the surface may limit these showers. Trended pops down to mostly slight chance, with some chance pops in the southwest. Otherwise expect highs in the upper 30s to low 40s today. The mentioned dry air may bring very low RH values in the north. Decreasing winds by this afternoon should limit the fire weather threat. UPDATE Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Cold front is just pushing through the far southeast corner of the CWA. Widespread MVFR clouds continue to expand across the forecast behind the cold front. A band of light snow over northwest ND, will continue to track southeast through the forecast area during the day. Little if any precip expected. Made some minor adjustments to sky cover through the day, otherwise no changes with this morning update. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 As of 3 am CDT the cold front was draped from northeast into south central ND, from around KGFK to KBIS. Stratus continues to increase over south central into eastern ND along and ahead of the front, with a few areas of fog. Low clouds were also increasing behind the front over northwest ND. A band of light snow was located over northwest ND from Portal and Crosby, southwest to around Williston. Clouds will continue to increase across the forecast area through the overnight and early morning hours. For today, it will be breezy and cooler with highs mainly in the upper 30s to mid 40s. The band of light snow over northwest ND will continue to drop southeast across the forecast area through the day. Expect mainly trace amounts of liquid maybe a couple hundredths, and little or no snow accumulations. There will be a period of breezy conditions directly behind the cold front, and we do expect breezy conditions over the south central into eastern ND through around mid afternoon, but winds will have already dropped off in the west and north central by then, and winds will continue to diminish through the late afternoon over the entire forecast area. Clouds will also diminish from north to south this afternoon as cool and very dry air spreads over the area. The low dewpoint air dropping into the north this afternoon will produce minimum relative humidities around 15 to 20 percent over the northern tier counties, but with much cooler temperatures and diminishing winds during the afternoon, when we experience the lowest humidities, we do not expect critical, or even near critical fire weather conditions. Humidities will be much higher over central and southern ND, even though gusty northerly winds will linger here into the afternoon. High pressure builds over the forecast area tonight with clearing skies and light winds. This will set the stage for a very chilly night tonight. By 12 UTC Saturday the surface ridge axis is located from northeast ND into south central ND and central SD. The GFS depicts a surface high just west of Aberdeen SD at 12 UTC Saturday, which is a favorable location for cold temperatures at Bismarck. There does appear to be some return of moisture over western ND late Friday night into early Saturday morning, which may inhibit radiational cooling. But in general, a cold night and possibly a record low or two if we see ideal radiational cooling conditions. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Precipitation chances Sunday and Monday highlight the Long term forecast period. After a cold start, Saturday should be a pretty nice day with relatively light winds and quite a bit of sunshine. It will be on the cool side with highs generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Late Saturday night and Sunday we see the the initial warm front lift northeast through the forecast area, ahead of the main upper low which during this timeframe is moving onto the west coast. Strong isentropic upglide lifts through the forecast area at the same time as building upper heights downstream of the deepening west coast trough. There is good model consensus in bringing a swath of precip through the forecast area, but differences in qpf amounts. Again this morning, the GFS/NAM are quite a bit wetter than the EC/Canadian solutions. Both deterministic, as well as the GFS/ECMWF ensembles show the greatest potential for amounts greater than a tenth of an inch would be around the southern James River Valley, and moreso into northeast South Dakota. Our given guidance shows a band of chance pops lifting northeast through the forecast area with qpf amounts of around a tenth of and inch over the south central and into the JRV, and tapering to lesser amounts to the north. The main forcing moves through the Northern Plains on Monday and there are varying solutions from the deterministic guidance. It's a little too early anyway for specifics, but it looks like most of the forecast area will see a reasonable shot of precipitation from late Sunday night through Monday evening. As for amounts, the ensemble GFS and ECMWF means show a good chance of amounts greater than a tenth of an inch, but with only meager chances of seeing over a half inch of liquid. Most of the precip should be liquid with this round on Monday, except perhaps late Monday evening in the north as the system is winding down. Once this system exits the area expect mainly dry conditions with seasonable temperatures, and perhaps a slow warming trend towards the end of the work week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 MVFR clouds today will give way to mainly VFR conditions tonight. Abundant cloud cover will linger across much of the area today, with MVFR ceilings expected. Clearing skies are then expected from northwest to southeast later this afternoon through tonight. Overnight tonight into Saturday morning expect mainly VFR conditions. Precipitation chances today will be isolated, with perhaps brief reductions in visibility expected. Northerly winds are also expected today, shifting to the east southeast tonight. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...Anglin