939 FXUS64 KMEG 231732 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 .DISCUSSION... Updated for aviation discussion && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1133 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021/ UPDATE... A shortwave continues to move across the area with showers accompanying it. There will be a lull in activity before more widespread rain returns later tonight. Temperatures were adjusted down a few degrees to account for rain and cloudy conditions. POPs were also adjusted through tonight based on current trends. New forecast will be out shortly. SMW PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021/ DISCUSSION... A weak shortwave is moving through what is essentially zonal flow across the Midsouth resulting in rain showers across much of east Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and portions of west Tennessee and north Mississippi. Midday today, as the shortwave shifts east of the area, there may be a brief decrease in showers but this afternoon into the evening hours, showers will become more widespread and thunderstorms will become more likely. Tonight into early Saturday a broad, positively tilted longwave trough will shift out of the plains and slowly approach the Mississippi River valley. An associated surface low will track across central Arkansas into west Tennessee. This orientation will likely keep the heaviest rain and stronger thunderstorms south of the Midsouth, over central Mississippi into north and central Alabama. However isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the Midsouth tonight through midday Saturday. Rainfall totals may approach one inch in portions of north Mississippi with one quarter to one half of an inch expected across most of the Midsouth. Saturday afternoon, the dynamic support for organized convection is expected to shift east of the Midsouth, but wrap around showers may linger through the day. A ridge will build in Sunday and keep conditions dry through at least Tuesday. Temperatures will trend warmer each day today well into next week. Afternoon highs are expected to return into the low 80s Monday and low to mid 80s by Tuesday. Guidance is in poor agreement for the middle to later part of the upcoming work week, but it appears we will see another round of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday or Thursday as a highly amplified trough shifts out of the plains and across the Mississippi River Valley. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected midweek. 30 && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue into the evening hours with some scattered light rain showers. Heavier rainfall along with a deterioration of flying conds to IFR will overspread the area tonight. Some improvement is likely at KMEM, KMKL and KTUP Saturday morning while IFR conds hang on at KJBR. SHRA/TSRA redevelopment is possible Saturday afternoon. Winds will generally be from the SE around 10 kts eventually shifting to the west or northwest as the surface low moves through Saturday. SJM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$