166 FXUS62 KMFL 231358 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 958 AM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 .UPDATE... High pressure with an easterly breeze across the region. The 12Z MFL sounding shows some drier air aloft but still low-level moisture, with a 1.18 inch PWAT across South Florida. This will allow for some showers or an isolated thunderstorm mainly across southern portions of the region this afternoon along the breeze. No major changes to the current forecast. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 730 AM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021) AVIATION(12Z TAFS)... Breezy easterly winds across the area with a few occasional higher gust possible. Mostly dry across South Florida with a few showers or isolated tstorm possible with lingering moisture across the Florida peninsula. However, coverage will be limited to include in TAF at this time. PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 327 AM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021) UPDATE... Looking at the current model data in regards to wind across the Atlantic, and the new marine models coming in, the risk for rip currents looks to be somewhat higher than earlier though, so have issued a High Risk for Rip Currents for the Atlantic beaches of South Florida. PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 237 AM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021) SHORT TERM... Today through Saturday Evening... Todays weather should be mostly dominated by a surface high passing to the north. There is some very weak ridging at 500mb, which may help to hinder convection today. The afore mentioned low should cause the wind to become more easterly today, and increase the pressure gradient, causing breezy conditions for the the day. With some moisture advecting into the area, PWATs are only forecast to be around 1.3 inches, the sea breezes may be able to initiate a few showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm, although confidence is very low at this time. The HRRR even barely shows any development at this time. So, today should be fairly dry, with some breezy conditions for the Atlantic beaches. By Saturday, a low pressure system is forecast to develop and move across the southeastern US. This system will push the high away from the area, causing the flow to become more southeasterly, and possibly allowing some additional moisture to advect into the area. There is also a very weak embedded 500mb short wave moving across Saturday afternoon. This may be enough to allow for some better chances of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the Lake region, and possibly, to a lesser extent, down the east coast metro areas. But, there is high uncertainty with how far south convection will develop on Saturday. LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Mid of the Week) A cold front associated with a low over the Eastern United States will be moving southward through the Florida Peninsula and through South Florida Sunday night. This will allow for the steering flow to be south to southwest on Sunday leading to isolated to scattered POPs over the interior and east coast metro areas. High pressure will then build into the Florid Peninsula for the early to middle part of next week. This will allow for a north to northeast wind flow over South Florida along with drier weather. Temperatures will not change much over South Florida behind the front with highs in the 80s, except around 90 west coast metro areas. Lows will in the 60s, except around 70 east coast metro areas. However, the relative humidity will be much lower with 40s over most areas except 50s east coast metro areas for early to middle part of next week. MARINE... Overall, the weather should remain fairly quiet, with just some gusty showers possible over the weekend. However, the increase in wind speeds should cause seas to build some in the Atlantic. However, with the wind losing its northerly component, the seas should subside through the day today. Even so, the wind speeds may bring cautionary conditions to the Atlantic waters through at least the weekend as the wind is forecast to run between 15 and 20 kts. Next week should see the wind relax and become less of a concern. BEACHES... Th increase in breezy conditions will enhance the risk of rip currents for the weekend for the Atlantic beaches. With little to no swell, today should see mainly a moderate risk of rip currents. However, with the increase in wind speeds, and a longer fetch due to the wind becoming southeasterly, tomorrow may see a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches. This may carry over into the beginning of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 74 86 74 90 / 10 10 10 20 West Kendall 74 88 73 90 / 10 10 10 20 Opa-Locka 73 87 74 90 / 10 10 10 20 Homestead 74 86 74 89 / 10 10 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 75 86 74 89 / 10 10 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 74 86 73 90 / 10 10 10 30 Pembroke Pines 73 87 74 90 / 10 10 10 20 West Palm Beach 71 86 71 90 / 10 20 10 30 Boca Raton 73 85 74 89 / 10 20 10 30 Naples 70 86 74 87 / 20 0 0 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ Update/Aviation...Kelly Today through Saturday and Marine...13 Saturday Night through Thursday...BNB Visit us at weather.gov/miami Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwsmiami www.twitter.com/nwsmiami