299 
FXUS61 KILN 231318
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
918 AM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the south will move east and keep a southerly
and generally mild flow in the Ohio Valley today. Rain will be 
found on Saturday along and ahead of a trough of low pressure
advancing across the Tennessee Valley. High pressure will 
quickly follow and then flow will turn back southerly once it 
passes early Monday, with above normal readings expected for the
work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Temperatures have increased well above freezing, and our 
Frost/Freeze headlines have expired as scheduled. We will 
observe thickening mid and high clouds as temperatures rise to 
around 60 degrees this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
South to southwesterly winds will relax as the boundary layer 
decouples and then turn southeasterly by morning. High clouds 
will continue to spill in from the west and thicken, lowering 
through the night.

Upper level trough axis will be west of the CWA at 18Z and 
along the OH/WV border by 00Z. Models vastly differ on how the
precip will pan out on Saturday but all key in on a northern
section that noses into southwest MI and could skirt portions of
west central Ohio in ILN CWA. At the apex of the trough, a
circulation is being noted by a number of solutions and is the
main driver for the good shot of rain that is expected in the
south Saturday afternoon.

The difficulty is determining if the two areas will be joined by
an area of rain moving east, or if a few models are correct and
the mid-section of the CWA gets caught on the northern edge of
the southern lift source and ends up being dry. Kept only higher
chance pops for much of the CWA and have likely in the
south/southeast for Saturday. 

Lows tonight will be notably warmer, 40-45 and highs will top
out closer to 60 for Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weather system will begin to exit the region at the start of 
the long term. Taper off precipitation chances through the 
night. There will be the potential for some drizzle as well 
before completely tapering off. Sunday night temperatures will 
drop into the 30s across northeastern portions of the region. 
Have only a little bit of patchy frost across far northeastern 
portions of the region at this point in time where winds will be
less.

Warmer conditions will arrive next week with temperatures on Monday 
expected to be in the 70s and reaching into the 80s by Tuesday.  Dry 
conditions are expected each day.

The next chance for precipitation will be Wednesday into Thursday. 
While models are in agreement on having this system developing and 
moving through, there are timing differences. There is some 
instability as well and therefore have thunder in the forecast. 
Breezy conditions are expected both for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail as southwest winds 8-10kt peak
during the day and relax at night. High clouds will stream in
from the west and lower through the day but still only bottom
out in the 8-12kft range overnight. Any rain and/or cigs/vsbys
dropping into the MVFR category will wait until daytime hours on
Saturday. 

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...Franks