323 FXUS64 KSHV 231159 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 659 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 .AVIATION... For the 23/12Z TAF period...MVFR cigs have moved into the region from west to east, and should overtake all sites over the next couple of hours. Some scattered showers have started to develop across the region this morning and should increase in coverage later today, along with widespread thunderstorms, as a retreating warm front lifts northward across the region. As a result, expect cigs and vsbys to drop into the IFR range as we move through the latter half of the TAF period on Friday and overnight into Saturday morning. Winds will continue to trend SE with speeds increasing to between 10-15 kts on Friday along with some higher gusts with convection by Friday afternoon and evening. /20/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 450 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021/ SHORT TERM.../Today through Saturday Night/ An active weather day expected today as isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes, and possibly isolated flash flooding will be possible during the afternoon and evening hours. An upper trough will continue to eject eastward out of the Southwest CONUS into the Southern Plains, and eventually into the lower Mississippi Valley by late tonight. A weak sfc low will likely develop across the Texas Panhandle this morning and push eastward across North Texas just south of the Red River. A dryline will develop southward from the low, with a cold front trailing. Storms will likely start to fire along the dryline across western North Texas by early afternoon as it pushes eastward with the sfc low before stalling near the I-35 corridor. Ahead of this feature, low-level moisture will be on the increase as a strong low-level jet will develop, pushing a warm front northward into our region today. Models continue to suggest that showers and isolated thunderstorms will start to develop as the warm front pushes northward across the region. In the warm sector, in wake of the warm front, a weak disturbance will move across the region. With the aid of warm air advection, thunderstorm activity will quickly develop and spread northeastward through the afternoon and evening hours. Mid-level lapse rates will be favorable in this environment along with wet-bulb zero heights for severe hail to form. It also appears that deep layer shear could favor damaging wind gusts as well. Although hail and damaging winds are the higher threat, there still remains the chance for isolated tornadoes as Effective Storm Relative Helicity will be on the increase this afternoon. In addition to the severe weather, locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially in areas where thunderstorms train. We continue to anticipate widespread QPF values of an inch, with 2-3 inch plus pockets. This could lead to some isolated flash flooding. Convection should move out of the region by Saturday morning, as the aforementioned sfc low continues to push east, and the associated cold front sweeps through the region. A dry northwesterly flow aloft will settle over the region, with dry conditions and party cloudy skies expected on Saturday. Rain and cloud cover will keep temperatures today near or just below seasonal averages, with a slight warm up near climatic normals for Saturday. /20/ LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday Night/ Dry conditions expected at the start of the period as upper-level ridging builds from the west. Subsident northwest flow aloft to support mostly clear skies areawide. Temperatures forecast to fall into the lower 50s on Sunday morning. A mainly dry forecast to continue through Monday night as both surface and upper-level ridging prevail across the region. However, as the surface high drifts east, temperatures to gradually climb each day ranging from highs around 80 on Sunday to the mid 80s on Monday. Accordingly, low temperatures to climb from the mid 50s on Monday morning to the mid 60s by Tuesday morning. Pattern to shift on Tuesday as upper-level ridge drifts east allowing for flow to become southwest across the region. This will allow for increased areawide. Progressive eastward moving upper-level trough across the Rockies combined with a surface boundary across Texas to support increased convection areawide by Tuesday night. There is still some uncertainty regarding the severe weather threat with this system. Both the Euro and GFS suggest that the frontal boundary will be fairly slow moving, allowing for showers and embedded thunderstorms to persist through Wednesday night. However, both models diverge drastically with the Euro nearly stalling the front allowing for elevated post-frontal precip to persist through the end of the period while the GFS is more aggressive on clearing the precipitation out of the region on Thursday morning. For this forecast package, sided more with the faster GFS solution but left slight chance pops through Thursday night just to communicate forecast uncertainty. /05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 72 62 78 53 / 80 100 0 0 MLU 72 59 81 53 / 70 100 10 0 DEQ 66 55 74 48 / 80 100 10 0 TXK 68 59 76 52 / 80 100 0 0 ELD 67 56 76 49 / 70 100 10 0 TYR 73 60 76 53 / 90 80 0 0 GGG 72 59 76 52 / 90 90 0 0 LFK 73 64 79 55 / 90 80 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 20