013 
FXUS63 KEAX 231120
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 348 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2021

Key Messages...

1. Scattered showers this morning, lingering, increasing chance for 
rain and isolated thunder after noon and through the evening and 
overnight. 

2. Greatest rainfall this evening, south of the Missouri River 
Valley. Upwards of 1 to 2 Inches across the southern half of 
Missouri. A quarter of an inch to a half inch along and near the 
immediate lower Missouri River Valley.

Detailed Discussion...

Decent short wave trough easily detectable on WV this morning 
crossing the northern Plains. In response, the overnight rain 
showers will be exiting eastward, with lingering light showers 
through sunrise as the region remains focused within modest warm air 
advection ahead of the second, more prominent wave approaching from 
the west. Through the afternoon, with the region well within the 
sector of broad scale forcing for ascent, expect scattered showers 
to develop early in the afternoon, with more organized rain and some 
isolated thunder across southwestern MO / southeastern KS, building 
north and northeast through the evening. The greatest rainfall 
chances will reside south of the Missouri River. Short range 
solutions suggest a weak warm frontal boundary stretched east west 
along the lower valley, with ample moisture and lift residing across 
the southern half of Missouri. Overall, anticipate 1 to 2 inches 
across the Ozark Plateau to around a half inch to an inch and a 
quarter along and immediate south of the Lower Missouri to the Lake 
of the Ozarks Region in mid-MO. With rainfall spread over several 
hours and only minor instability present, no flooding concerns are 
expected, which is reflected in MBRFC guidance. 

Rain will end through Saturday morning, with only a brief cool down, 
post front, with highs Saturday in the low to mid 60s. 

Keeping an eye on next Tuesday as long range solutions continue to 
resolve an amplified 500mb trough digging into the Plains. In 
response, a strong dryline is expected to set up off the Llano 
Estacado midday, reaching as far east as central Kansas and knocking 
on the door of the Oklahoma Crosstimbers. With a stout jet streak 
racing off the Trans Pecos to northeast Kansas, the region of 
eastern Kansas and far western missouri will reside within a region 
of ample broad scale ascent and moisture. Early indications are for 
the potential strong to severe storms developing ahead of the dry 
line and near the warm front across central Kansas, with an 
evolution eastward through the mid to late evening. Strong to severe 
storms are possible, with forecast soundings revealing elevated 
instability supportive of severe hail. 

Outside of rain and potential storms, temperatures will climb 
nicely, early next week, with highs in the upper 70s Tuesday and mid 
to upper 60s late next week. 

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2021

Ceilings are beginning to drop to MVFR and will continue to
decrease through the course of the period, reaching IFR by 00Z at
the latest. -SHRA and a dip in visibilities will impact area by
late afternoon, 22Z. SHRA and RA mentions will prevail through
much of the back half of the period, likely clearing early
Saturday morning, but overcast IFR ceilings will linger through
the end of the period. Winds will start off light to modest, out
of the southeast, gradually becoming more east and northeast
through the day and overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...Kurtz