375 FXUS65 KVEF 231056 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 355 AM PDT Fri Apr 23 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A weekend of warmer temperatures and windy conditions will increase the potential for wildfire spread through Sunday. Then all eyes turn to the potential for widespread precipitation across the region with our next storm system Sunday night through Tuesday. .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday. The focus of the short term is on wind potential both Saturday and Sunday ahead of our next significant trough and precip event early next week. Gradients both aloft and at the surface will be increasing beginning Saturday morning across the west as an initial shortwave quickly passes through ahead of our more major disturbance on Sunday/Monday. Both will be efficient in producing surface troughs positioned across southern Nevada and southwestern Utah setting up the typical southwest to northeast oriented corridor of winds each afternoon. 06Z GFS shows this belt well with coherency up to 700 mb indicating the mixing will be able to bring winds of 40+ kts down to the surface or at least to the high elevations of San Bern. Ended up hoisting a wind advisory for Saturday afternoon but this may need to be expanded farther east if models continue to trend upward. ECMWF EFI highlights this corridor Saturday and even more so Sunday so would count on wind products for Sunday as well. Currently, Fire Weather Watches are in effect for much of this area that coincides with low RH and critical fuels (southern NV & northwest Arizona). Wind advisories will likely be needed for some or all of this region Sunday as well. Sunday precip will be mostly confined to the Sierra in the way of snow with precip struggling to make it to the Owens Valley. The bulk of the snowfall is expected to fall before 12Z Monday as the AR slams into the Sierra. NBM 24 hour snowfall for Aspendell shows a range of 1-4 inches between the 25th and 75th percentiles Sunday through 12Z Monday. This results in about a 10% chance for 7+ inches (advisory criteria) being met. So not out of the question, but looking unlikely. .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday. On Monday and Tuesday, the aforementioned trough will pass across the area exiting by early Wednesday. Enhanced lift and moisture in place will allow for widespread chances for precipitation on Monday. Pretty much every corner of the area has at least a 30 percent chance to see some precipitation which hasn't happened in quite a while and is a very welcome change. Highest rainfall totals are forecast to remain over the eastern Sierra/Owens Valley and Lincoln/Mohave counties early Monday through Tuesday morning at up to a half of an inch with higher amounts in the higher elevations. Precip chances hang around on Tuesday across eastern portions of the area including Lincoln, Clark, and Mohave counties but are expected to dry out by Tuesday night. A strong ridge builds in behind for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will see a big swing going from a high of 67 in Vegas for Monday up to near 90 by Thursday. The ensembles are in fairly good agreement with the handling of this trough through Monday night with only slight variance coming from the GEFS indicating a slightly deeper trough. On Tuesday we begin to see differences in the timing of the exit of the trough between the long term ensembles as well as with the strength of the incoming ridge. The GEFS kicks the trough out more quickly with weaker ridging and the EPS is slightly slower with the exit and a stronger ridge for midweek. The general trend will be dry with warming temperatures with the finer details to be worked out in the coming days. && .FIRE WEATHER...Potential of strong winds and low humidity returns this weekend, specifically to southeast Nevada and northwest Arizona. With fuels critical or approaching critical thresholds a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for both Saturday and Sunday. The watch will be focused on the afternoon hours, as conditions will not be as critical overnight as humidity values rise and winds weaken. && .AVIATION...For McCarran...Generally light winds this morning, but there is some potential of northwest winds developing after 17z with speeds to around 8 kts. However, southwest winds are expected to increase after 22z with speeds 10-20 kts. FEW clouds developing around 12k feet this afternoon. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Majority of the area will see winds under 10 kts through noon, but are expected to increase during the afternoon. San Bernardino, Clark, and Mohave Counties are expected to see southwest to west winds 10-20 kts while Esmeralda, Nye, and Lincoln Counties should see northwest winds 10-20 kts. FEW-SCT clouds around 12k feet this afternoon. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM/FIRE...TB3 LONG TERM...Guillet AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter