182 FXUS61 KBGM 231047 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 647 AM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region today and then slide off the east coast Saturday. This will give way to a low pressure system tracking up the east coast Sunday with the next shot of rain. High pressure then builds back into the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... A few minor adjustments with the sunrise update. Otherwise, forecast discussion below on track. Somewhat cool and drier will continue to advect into the region today with our region between an approaching high pressure system and a departing low. This will setup a rather sunny day across the region today with temperatures quickly rising and topping out near 60 for many locations. Gusty west to northwest winds will be the main story today though with momentum transfer on modeled soundings indicating some gusts of 20-30 mph this afternoon across the region. Modeled soundings also indicate some mixing will be occurring as well so lowered the afternoon dewpoints to take this into account. With the high pressure system building in clear skies and light winds are expected. This will make it a favorable night for radiational cooling across the region. As a result, we undercut the modeled lows by a couple of degrees tonight with most spots falling back into the 30's once again. Saturday looks dry for much of the day but clouds will be on the increase ahead of a low pressure tracking toward the region from the southwest. Currently the majority of the models are keeping rain out of the area for the whole day given the amount of dry air that needs to be overcome. The exception is the potential for a few light rain showers getting into the western Southern Tier and NE PA by sunset. Once again a quick rebound in temperatures Saturday with the sunshine with highs temperatures getting into the 60's for much of the region. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Main concerns in the short term are focused on the next batch of rain Saturday night and Sunday, with dry and mild temperatures on Monday. Upper level ridge over the Northeast will be moving out of the area as a northern stream upper trough and southern track low pressure system move in from the w/nw and se respectively. Robust cloud cover and mild temperatures within a southeast flow will preclude any precipitation Friday evening before a shield of rain overtakes the region through the rest of the night into Sunday morning. The two synoptic features will not phase with each other as previously expected. Therefore the southern low will likely keep the deep moisture and potential for heavier rain further to the south, and also allow for a corridor of minimal rain across wrn and w-central NY. Higher rainfall amounts will be confined to an area of ne PA and s-central NY, stretching from the Wyoming Valley and Poconos into the southern Catskills where 0.5 to 0.75 inch of rain is possible. Areas further to the north and nw will see around 0.25 to 0.5 inch through Sunday. Temperatures will remain mild on Sunday with highs topping out in the 50s for much of the area. However, by Sunday night another cool shot of air from Canada will drop in across the region. Overnight lows into Monday morning will bottom out in the 30s with some residual lake clouds and a solid 5 to 15 mph northwest wind. The cold air retreats to the north slightly on Monday as high pressure starts to build across the region. Large scale suppression will keep weather conditions quiet under a good amount sun with highs rising into the 50s close to 60 by the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A period of quiet weather and warming temperatures sets up into the middle of the week. A large dome of high pressure over the Southeast US will stretch somewhat into the Northeast, with a broad area of warm air causing temperatures to climb into the 60s and low 70s by Tuesday, and into the 70s and low 80s by Wednesday. There is the potential for a weak short wave moving across the Great Lakes to cut into the ridge on Tuesday, and if this does occur is should only act to increase cloud cover. The ridge axis slides to the east by Wednesday as an upper trough pushes through the central US. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to the orientation and overall progression of this feature, so will continue with only chance PoPs late Wed through Thu. Increased heat and humidity...temperatures into the 80s and dew points in the 50s...will make for a favorable environment for convective showers and maybe even some storms by Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR throughout the TAF period. Main impacts at TAF sites will come from westerly winds increasing to 10-20 knots later this morning through the afternoon with top gusts of 25-30 knots. Winds decrease this evening. Any restrictions look to hold off till Saturday night at this time but high clouds will likely increase throughout the day. Outlook... Saturday night...A system brings rain and deteriorating conditions. Sunday through Tuesday...Rain begins to gradually move out of the area Sunday morning with VFR conditions returning Sunday afternoon and remaining through the beginning of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Conditions will become favorable for gusty westerly winds of 20-30 mph this afternoon. Also, modeling is likely underestimating RH values given the meteorological setup. We suspect RH values will fall into the 25-35% range today. Coordination with state partners indicates fuel moisture is high enough to limit concerns for fire spread today. Winds decrease some on Saturday limiting the concern as well Saturday. Fuel moisture then increases with the next round of rain late Saturday into Sunday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...MWG SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...MWG FIRE WEATHER...MWG