691 FXUS61 KBUF 231046 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 646 AM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather with moderating temperatures will prevail through Saturday before the next rain maker advances into the region Saturday night. Dramatically warmer conditions are on tap for next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... After a few morning clouds in the North Country, high pressure ridge shifting to the south of the region across the southeast United States will result in mostly sunny skies and warmer conditions today for all areas with highs topping out in the 50s. Will be breezy though this afternoon with gusts around 30 mph to the northeast of the lakes. Despite high pressure ridge nearby tonight, temps should not bottom out as persistent warm air advection will be occurring just off the surface. Cold spots may drop to mid 30s, but otherwise, most locations will see lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Shallow upper ridge stays overhead on Saturday downstream of shortwave trough crossing Ohio Valley. Models are trending drier on Saturday afternoon. Clouds really will not increase til late in the day. Temps will reach low to mid 60s most areas. Only chance of rain is very late in the day over far southwest NY. Will not be as breezy as today, so really Saturday is shaping up to be a nice spring day especially after the recent cooldown. By Saturday evening, upper levels will feature two main systems, one northern stream one crossing Great Lakes with second southern stream system exiting Ohio Valley toward Mid Atlantic States. Split play is in play with these two systems. Canadian was showing a miss for good part of our area last night and tonight the NAM is joining in. NAM forecast soundings do show a lot of mid-level moisture Saturday night with only weak lift as the main systems direct impact aloft and at the sfc miss most of our forecast areas. May end up being situation where we eventually end up seeing light rain out of this mid-cloud deck later Sat night. If we measure though, could only end up with a few hundredths over western NY and a bit better rainfall over Finger Lakes to eastern Lake Ontario region later Saturday night into Sunday. Main change was to lower pops in the evening but then transition back toward current forecast of likely pops later on Saturday night. Seems that western NY could still see some adjustments to this forecast though. On Sunday, even as main focus for rain shifts to eastern forecast area quickly, a cold front tied to the northern stream system works through shifting winds to west-northwest. Low-level moisture with upslope flow may support some light rain/few rain showers on Sunday over western NY to the Finger Lakes. Went a bit above blended guidance for pops on Sunday and bumped up sky cover some as well to account for this potential. High temps will be cooler than Saturday with readings in the 50s, coolest over the higher terrain. Upslope flow and low-level moisture could support a few showers east of Lake Ontario on Sunday evening. If the moisture does not strip out fast enough, then there is small window of time where it could be cold enough for a few wet snowflakes to mix in over highest terrain of Tug Hill and western Adirondacks. Lows will be chilly again with lows in the upper 20s higher terrain to the low to mid 30s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ...Big warm up expected during this period... Sfc ridge over the eastern Great Lakes Monday shift southeast to the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Tuesday morning, and then slip gradually out to sea while still maintaining dry weather. While this occurs, SW'erly flow also develops across the region on the backside of the sfc ridge as it departs to the Mid-Atlantic. Monday will "likely" be the last of the "cool" days with highs only in the 50s to near 60F across the Lower Lakes. Then the above mentioned SW'er'ly flow will advect a much warmer air mass into the region for Tuesday with H850T jumping to +10C to +13C. This will support a 15F to 20F jump in MaxT's with solid 70s across WNY into the Finger Lakes region. It will be a few degrees cooler east of Lake Ontario with mid and upper 60s. The potential for showers then increases for Wednesday and especially on Thursday as a complex area of low pressures and associated frontal boundaries approach the region. The big story here will still be MaxT's on Thursday, which may potentially climb into the low to mid 80s areawide. What a difference a week makes, highs a week ago were only in the 30s and 40s with accumulating snows! && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sfc ridge builds in today providing quiet weather through tonight. Expect VFR at all area terminals but winds will be a bit elevated NE of the lakes with gusts 25 to 30 knots. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR. Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR with showers likely. Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Southwest winds will increase on Lake Erie this afternoon which will prompt a new round of Small Craft Advisories which will continue into the evening. Winds and waves will also remain higher on eastern Lake Ontario so the Small Craft there that was set to come down this morning has been extended through daybreak on Saturday. Winds will then become light all areas on Saturday before kicking up again later Sunday behind a cold front. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ044-045. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LOZ043. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fries/JLA NEAR TERM...JLA SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...AR MARINE...JLA