091 
FXUS65 KTWC 231021
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
321 AM MST Fri Apr 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...After a rapid warmup this weekend, another storm 
system will bring strong winds and a better chance of rain showers
the first half of next week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...A trough will shift east of the area this morning,
with the ridge building in from the west behind it bringing a
rapid warming trend over the weekend.

A strong low near the Aleutian Islands will dig into the Pacific
Northwest over the weekend with a broad and deep trough
subsequently developing over western states the first half of the
new week.

Increasing southwesterly flow ahead of this system will bring
gusty winds Sunday afternoon, continuing into Monday with much of
our corner of the state still east of the trough through Monday 
afternoon. Critical fire weather concerns with the dry conditions,
with additional details outlined in the fire weather section.

This late season system could actually end up digging deep enough
for a better chance of rain showers than previous systems. It 
should have enough time to pick up a little more moisture from the
south and southwest Monday night into Tuesday. Snow levels as low
as 7k feet Tuesday morning but it will be tough to see significant
accumulations with the antecedent warm conditions this time of 
year.

A more amplified pattern will build a strong ridge near the west
coast the second half of the new week, supporting temperatures
around 10 degrees above climo, including more 90s for Metro 
Tucson.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/12Z. 
SKC and VFR this afternoon for all TAF locales. Lighter winds are 
expected today. NW winds 7-11 kts with gusts generally less than 20 
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today will bring lighter winds to most locations, 
as well as a slight chance of showers in the White Mountains. The 
exception will be the upper Gila River valley near Safford, where 
gusty northwest winds are expected, with wind speeds of 20-25 mph 
and gusts to 35 mph. Localized critical fire weather conditions may 
occur in the Gila River Valley this afternoon. Lack of a larger 
critical area will preclude any red flag issuance.  

A rapid warming trend occurs over the weekend, with strong and gusty 
winds developing again on Sunday in advance of a storm system. This 
system will maintain the gusty winds across the area Monday and 
Tuesday, along with cooler than normal temperatures and a slight 
chance to chance of showers late Monday and Tuesday. 

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Fire Weather Zone 153 on 
Sunday. It is certainly possibly this could expand across the CWA. 
At least elevated fire weather will be area wide. 

Monday is looking like another critical fire weather day for the 
southwest corner of the state. We may eventually need another Fire 
Weather Watch for this period. 

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening 
for AZZ153.

&&

$$

Public...Meyer
Aviation...Michael
Fire Weather....Michael

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