364 FXUS61 KBUF 230712 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 312 AM EDT Fri Apr 23 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather with moderating temperatures will prevail through Saturday before the next rain maker advances into the region Saturday night. Dramatically warmer conditions are on tap for next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure ridge shifting to the south of the region across the southeast United States will result in mostly sunny skies and warmer conditions today with highs topping out in the 50s. Will be breezy though this afternoon with gusts around 30 mph to the northeast of the lakes. Depite high pressure ridge nearby tonight, temps should not bottom out as persistent warm air advection will be occurring just off the surface. Cold spots may drop to mid 30s, but otherwise, most locations will see lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Shallow upper ridge stays overhead on Saturday downstream of shortwave trough crossing Ohio Valley. Models are trending drier on Saturday afternoon. Clouds really will not increase til late in the day. Temps will reach low to mid 60s most areas. Only chance of rain is very late in the day over far southwest NY. Will not be as breezy as today, so really Saturday is shaping up to be a nice Spring day especially after the recent cooldown. By Saturday evening, upper levels will feature two main systems, one northern stream one crossing Great Lakes with second southern stream system exiting Ohio Valley toward Mid Atlantic States. Split play is in play with these two systems. Canadian was showing a miss for good part of our area last night and tonight the NAM is joining in. NAM forecast soundings do show a lot of mid-level moisture Saturday night with only weak lift as the main systems direct impact aloft and at the sfc miss most of our forecast areas. May end up being situation where we eventually end up seeing light rain out of this mid-cloud deck later Sat night. If we measure though, could only end up with a few hundredths over western NY and a bit better rainfall over Finger Lakes to eastern Lake Ontario region later Saturday night into Sunday. Main change was to lower pops in the evening but then transition back toward current forecast of likely pops later on Saturday night. Seems that western NY could still see some adjustments to this forecast though. On Sunday, even as main focus for rain shifts to eastern forecast area quickly, a cold front tied to the northern stream system works through shifting winds to west-northwest. Low-level moisture with upslope flow may support some light rain/few rain showers on Sunday over western NY to the Finger Lakes. Went a bit above blended guidance for pops on Sunday and bumped up sky cover some as well to account for this potential. High temps will be cooler than Saturday with readings in the 50s, coolest over the higher terrain. Upslope flow and low-level moisture could support a few showers east of Lake Ontario on Sunday evening. If the moisture does not strip out fast enough, then there is small window of time where it could be cold enough for a few wet snowflakes to mix in over highest terrain of Tug Hill and western Adirondacks. Lows will be chilly again with lows in the upper 20s higher terrain to the low to mid 30s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ...Big warm up expected during this period... High pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes on Monday morning will shift southeast to the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Tuesday morning, and slowly track out to sea through the week. As this area of high pressure tracks southeast to the coast the weather will turn dry after a damp weekend. Temperatures will also warm as the area of high pressure tracks southeast, as northwest winds shift to the southwest, warm air advection will increase markedly. As result, temperatures across much of the area will increase by 15 to 20 degrees from Monday to Tuesday. Daytime highs on Tuesday are expected to be in the low to mid 70s south of Lake Ontario, and in the mid to upper 60s for the North Country. A warm front out ahead of an approaching area of low pressure will push through the area early Wednesday, providing another push of warm air advection. Temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be in the low to mid 80s for most areas, with a few mid 70s expected for the higher terrain of the North Country. The potential for showers will increase for Wednesday into Thursday as the complex area of low pressure and associated frontal boundaries approaches the region. Thursday will be above normal again, but timing of a potential cold frontal passage will determine how warm max temps get ahead of the frontal passage. Timing of which is still in disagreement with guidance. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sfc ridge builds in today providing quiet weather through tonight. Expect VFR at all area terminals but winds will be a bit elevated NE of the lakes with gusts 25 to 30 knots. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR. Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR with showers likely. Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Winds will gradually diminish on Lake Ontario early this morning. Southwest winds will increase again on Lake Erie this afternoon which will prompt a new round of Small Craft Advisories which will continue into the evening. Winds will then become light for Saturday before kicking up again later Sunday behind a cold front. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LOZ043>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fries/JLA NEAR TERM...JLA SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...SW AVIATION...AR MARINE...JLA