229 
FXUS63 KLBF 230413
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1113 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

The upper level low will continue to track across the 
central Plains through tonight. This will result in some lingering 
showers through the evening. Latest model sounding profiles all show 
ample warm temperatures which should keep precipitation as all rain. 
However, there is always a chance of some small hail or graupel as 
hydrometeors do not melt all the way to rain. All precipitation is 
expected to end after Midnight CT with drier conditions expected for 
the rest of Friday. 

Some stronger winds may be possible throughout the day despite drier 
conditions. North to northeast gusts up to 20 to 25 mph is expected 
between late morning and early afternoon. Despite mostly sunny skies 
with high temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s, these stronger 
winds will make conditions feel a little more chilly (low 50s to low 
60s). Increasing clouds are also expected by late afternoon as the 
next system approaches the region which may inhibit some daytime 
heating. 

A shortwave trough will move through the region again on Friday 
evening and overnight. Any precipitation associated with this will 
be light and is expected mainly over southwest Nebraska. Again, near 
surface temperatures will be above 35 degrees and therefore any 
precipitation that does develop should remain as all rain. 
Confidence is quite low with this feature though and would not be 
surprised if no precipitation actually develops. Regardless, the 
trough pushes into eastern Nebraska by early Saturday morning with 
any precipitation ending by then as well. Dry conditions with clouds 
scattering out is then expected for the remainder of the short term.  

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

Dry weather continues through the weekend and into the beginning of 
next week.  In addition, a warming trend will continue through this 
time as well. Broad, upper level ridging will allow for ample 
sunshine and plenty of warm air advection into the region keeping 
conditions pleasant and warm through Monday. By Monday, high 
temperatures will range from the low 70s across the Pine Ridge 
region into the low 80s across southwest Nebraska and into portions 
of south central Nebraska. 

Active weather will then return for Monday night through Wednesday 
morning. A strong upper level trough will dig southward into the 
southern Plains. The developing surface low will then track across 
Kansas bringing precipitation to most of north central and western 
Nebraska. At this time, precipitation will remain all liquid with 
thunderstorm potential low. Will need to monitor this system as a 
track further north may change thunderstorm potential. On the flip 
side, a track further to the south may result in a change over, even 
briefly, to snow during the overnight hours. Will continue to keep a 
close eye on the developments regarding the feature and upper level 
pattern over the weekend and into next week. 

The extended period ends on a dry note with mild temperatures in the 
low to mid 60s on Wednesday rising into the mid to upper 60s on 
Thursday.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

For this TAF period, VFR conditions will persist. There will be a 
wind shift through the morning as winds, currently out of the 
southeast, move counterclockwise to eventually be northeasterly. 
Wind speeds will generally range 5-10kts, with brief periods of 
stronger gusts up to 17 kts for northern Nebraska terminals. Clouds 
will build in toward the of the 24 hr period, but no concerns are 
currently expected. 

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Buttler/Sinclair