548 
FXUS64 KOHX 230034
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
734 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
 
Consensus model blended solution used through next Thursday. All
in all not much change in reasoning from morning forecast package
issuance. Frost will again be possible for eastern part of area 
late tonight. Continued with frost advisory for locations just 
west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region from midnight
tonight through 7 AM CDT Friday. 

Other than some potential of isolated showers across Tennessee
River Valley during mid morning hours Friday associated with a
weak shortwave passage, Friday will be dry across mid state 
region. It will also be a bit warmer too as southerly winds bring
some warmer air ahead of the next trough. However, most of
expected rainfall should hold off until Friday evening hours. 
Best chances for rain still look to be after midnight through 
around noon Saturday, then numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon as an upper 
level low moves across mid state region. As referenced above,
just enough instability will be present in afternoon hours on
Saturday to support scattered thunderstorm development.
Lingering isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across 
Cumberland Plateau Region during Saturday evening hours will be
possible but dry conditions should begin building into western and
central portions of mid state region. 

Sunday will have northwest flow aloft before upper level ridging 
moves in for Monday and Tuesday, so continuing to expect warming 
temperatures with dry conditions during that time frame.
Temperatures will approach 80 on Monday across most of mid state,
mid 70s Cumberland Plateau Region, and most of the area will be 
in low to even mid 80s on Tuesday, upper 70s Cumberland Plateau 
Region. Consensus blended model fields continue to show a 
significant trough moving into the area as second half of work 
week progresses. However model runs continue to slow down 
progression of this feature eastward, with recent GFS/ECMWF 
solutions coming more in line, keeping best chance for showers and
thunderstorms during the Thursday afternoon time frame. A strong 
surface cold front will also approach and move through mid state 
region as second half of next work week progresses. If strength of
this trough holds, along with potential of convective development
ahead and along surface frontal passage, there could potentially 
be some strong to severe thunderstorms possible late next work 
week, but significantly uncertainty continues in exact 
determination of potential strength/timing at this date/time.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

High clouds will stream in from the west tonight and bring
scattered very light showers Friday morning through around 18z.
Impacts to terminals should be very minimal. 5kft cig expected for
most of the day on Friday. Winds will be light and variable
overnight tonight, then turn out of the southeast at 5 to 10 knots
tomorrow.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM CDT Friday for 
Cannon-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-De Kalb-Fentress-Grundy-Jackson-
Macon-Overton-Pickett-Putnam-Smith-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-
White.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......JB Wright
AVIATION........11