619 FXUS63 KGLD 220817 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 217 AM MDT Thu Apr 22 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 325 PM MDT Wed Apr 21 2021 Tonight-Thursday...a narrow axis of 850-500mb moisture caught in between an upper level trough over the Great Lakes area and an upper level low over southern Nevada is forecast to slowly lift north tonight as the upper trough approaches. As the upper trough moves through tomorrow the axis of moisture moves east with it. Light snow will be possible tonight with the best chance generally north of the interstate. Snowfall accumulations of a few tenths of an inch are possible. Southeast winds slowly increase tonight with sustained speeds of 10 to 25 mph expected by sunrise, highest along and west of the CO/KS border. For Thursday south winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts are expected in the morning decreasing slightly in the afternoon. Low temperatures are expected to be range from the mid to upper 20s in far eastern Colorado to the low 30s east of the CO/KS border. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid 20s to mid 60s. Thursday night-Friday...a large scale upper trough moves through the Continental Divide during the night then into the northern and central plains during the day. The forecast is currently dry but there may be enough moisture with the passage of the trough to produce some light precipitation. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 30s with high temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s. Friday night-Saturday...broad upper level ridging moves into the area from the west. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low 30s. High temperatures look to reach the mid to upper 60s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Apr 22 2021 The start of the extended period features ridging which will bring dry and warm conditions to the Tri-State area. Sunday southwesterly flow brings WAA over the area as highs range from the 80s to perhaps 90 degrees Monday afternoon over the eastern counties of the CWA. Near critical to critical fire conditions are looking more probable as southwesterly winds gust up to 30mph and low RH values in the teens are currently forecasted roughly along and west of a Flagler to Burlington to Leoti line. Near Critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible again on Monday with the entire Tri-State area with RH values in the mid teens and gusty winds up to 30mph. Tuesday, the ridge pushes off to the east ahead of an advancing trough ejecting towards the plains. A low develops off of the Front Range and ushers in cooler air with an associated cold front as the low propagates across the CWA during the afternoon hours and into the evening. The GFS has an area of wraparound moisture from the trough that will help set off showers and storms behind the low. Gusty winds are possible as well behind the low as the cold front moves through the area and the pressure gradient tightens. A wide range of temperatures are currently expected for Tuesday as Yuma County Colorado may struggle to reach 60 and Graham County Kansas is currently forecasted in the mid 70s. The temperatures and precipitation are highly dependent on the overall location of the low so there may be some fluctuation as guidance and confidence increases in the coming days as the event draws nearer. Wednesday, breezy northerly winds continues along with areas of lingering precipitation as the previous day trough moves to the east. Highs on Wednesday will be closer to climatological normal with widespread 60s. Breezy northerly winds are again possible on Thursday as northwesterly flow moves into the High Plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 935 PM MDT Wed Apr 21 2021 VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period, with ceilings no lower than 4-6 KFT AGL. Light/variable or light easterly winds will shift to the ESE-SE and increase to 10-15 knots after midnight (06-09Z), becoming SSE-SE at 15-20 knots by sunrise Thu morning.. as the MSLP gradient begins to tighten on the eastern periphery of a deepening lee cyclone in Colorado. S-SSE winds will noticeably strengthen within a few hours after sunrise.. increasing to 20-30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots by 13-16Z. Strong S-SSE winds will persist through the day at the MCK terminal. At the GLD terminal, winds are anticipated to shift to the SSW-SW and decrease to 15-25 knots during the afternoon (18-21Z).. as the aforementioned lee cyclone progresses east to the CO/KS border and the MSLP gradient relaxes. Winds will rapidly diminish AOA sunset Thu evening at both terminals, becoming light and variable by the end of the TAF period (late Thu evening). && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...TT AVIATION...VINCENT