785 FXUS64 KEPZ 200821 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 221 AM MDT Tue Apr 20 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Near seasonal temperatures across the Borderland today with plenty of sunshine and only marginally breezy conditions at times this afternoon. Dry weather continues and will persist through the upcoming weekend. A weak cool front will slowly push west across the region overnight, but it will largely go unnoticed except for some easterly breezes. It will keep temperatures near, or just a few degrees below, April normals. A passing upper trough will make for breezy to windy conditions for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday with a second system bring stronger winds again next Monday. Next chance for any rain in the Borderland comes next Tuesday, but the chances look bleak for most of the area. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight... A backdoor cold front is currently sliding down through eastern New Mexico this morning. The front is forecast to enter into the Sacramento Mountains around daybreak and push into the Tularosa Basin and to the El Paso/Hudspeth County line by early afternoon. This is where it will stall for the remainder of the daytime hours. For those eastern areas behind the front, expect winds to become east/southeasterly and breezy in spots. There may be some low clouds that try to bank up against the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains for a very brief period this morning, but they should quickly dissipate. Also, there will be quite a potent gradient in high temperatures east of the Rio Grande valley due to the front. High temperatures will be around 80 degrees in El Paso this afternoon while locations like Dell City, Cornudas, and into eastern Otero County will struggle to reach the upper 60s. Elsewhere, west- southwesterly winds will become low-end breezy in spots under mostly clear skies. High temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. After sunset, the front will start its advance to the west across the rest of the Borderland. It looks to pass through El Paso and Las Cruces around 8pm turning winds easterly. This will also be when winds become gusty in the Tularosa Basin and along western mountain slopes, including in portions of west El Paso. Models have slight disagreements in just how far west the front will march by sunrise Wednesday morning. Both the GFS and ECMWF have the front stalling out by the time it reaches the eastern Hidalgo County line, while higher resolution models like the NAM, RAP, and HRRR have it reaching the NM/AZ border. Regardless, the impacts will be fairly minimal wherever it does reach to, just primarily a shift in wind direction. Low temperatures Tuesday night will only be a couple of degrees cooler across most the area. The exception will be far eastern areas where mid to upper 30s are expected due the colder air filtering in behind the front. && .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday The main message for these longer-term periods, through the next seven days, is continued dry, and often breezy to windy conditions across the region. I.E., generally typical spring weather across the Borderland region. Wednesday we begin to see the washout of the backdoor front as strengthening westerly winds aloft form ahead of the next approaching upper trough. Our western areas, Deming to TorC and west, will see breezy to windy SW-W winds develop Wednesday afternoon. Breezy conditions for most of our central region. Far West Texas, and the lowlands of Otero county should have the lightest winds as sfc high pressure over the plains keeps some lighter SE winds there. Thursday the upper low/trough drops S to the CA/AZ border to bring a second day of increased SWerly winds to the region. This second day of westerlies will push what's left of the frontal boundary out, and east, of the region. Thus the winds will be more uniformly breezy to windy across the CWFA. Both days look to remain below Advisory criteria across most, if not all, of the area. The upper trough swings across the CWFA on Friday with a weak Pacific frontal boundary pushing in from the west. Models blip out a spot or two of light precipitation FRI aftn/eve with the passage, but it's a good bet most of the region, and probably all of the region, will stay dry, with only a few mountain sprinkles at most. Dewpoints will likely be in the teens, with PWATs at around 1/3 inch, so a dry forecast is favored. A short-lived, and relatively weak ridge builds aloft for the weekend, after the trough exits Friday. This will mean warmer conditions, dry conditions, and lighter winds. Monday we should start seeing southwest winds increase again as the next Pacific trough begins to move across southern Cal. If we have any chance at precipitation over the next 7 days, it will come Tuesday as that system passes over the region, but that too looks bleak. && .AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE P6SM SKC through 00Z with increasing high clouds making skies FEW-SCT250 by the end of the period. Winds generally west to southwest AOB 12KTS increasing to 8-15G25KTS after 18Z at all terminals, but a back door cold front will push into Hudspeth and Otero counties after 15Z where winds will turn east to southeast at 10-20KTS. Front will push to about KDMN between 00Z-06Z with gusts on western mountain slopes over 25KTS possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... A dry backdoor cold front will push into far eastern portions of the Borderland through the daytime hours today. Expect winds to become east/southeasterly in Otero and Hudspeth Counties by mid-morning, and speeds will become breezy across the Otero Mesa and parts of Hudspeth County. Elsewhere, winds will be west/southwesterly with a few light breezes this afternoon. Min RHs will be 8-10 percent for most of the area, except for eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties where RHs will remain above 18-20 percent. The front will advance through the rest of the Borderland Tuesday evening into the overnight hours. This will turn winds easterly and create gusty winds along western mountain slopes. The front will get pushed back around the Rio Grande valley during the day on Wednesday as southwesterly winds increase. Expect Red Flag conditions to develop west of the Rio Grande valley Wednesday afternoon, with the strongest winds forecast to occur in the Gila region. The Fire Weather Watch for southwestern and south-central NM on Wednesday will be upgraded to A Red Flag Warning. Overnight RHs Tuesday and Wednesday night will be 30-40 percent out west and 50-60 percent in the east. Min RHs will drop into the single digits across the entire area starting Thursday as the front fully exits the area. Winds will become gusty again on Thursday and Friday potentially leading to more spotty Red Flag conditions. Winds will be light this weekend as temperatures approach 90 degrees on Sunday. Vent rates will be Very Good to Excellent through the week, with the exception of Poor to Fair rates in far eastern areas today and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 79 47 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 73 38 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 81 46 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 75 43 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 51 32 53 35 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 79 45 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 71 44 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 80 41 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 81 44 81 43 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 79 48 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 69 35 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 79 42 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 72 37 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 80 45 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 79 44 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 78 46 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 78 43 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 81 43 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 81 45 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 76 42 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 56 26 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 61 33 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 58 29 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 72 33 72 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 77 41 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 79 42 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 70 39 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 74 37 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 79 36 82 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 74 44 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 74 42 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 81 44 81 43 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 80 42 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 80 47 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 77 49 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NMZ110>112. TX...None. && $$ 32/14