222 
FXUS65 KFGZ 200353
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
853 PM MST Mon Apr 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry and breezy conditions for the day Tuesday. 
Wednesday, strong southwest winds increase in the afternoon, 
likely leading to near critical fire weather conditions over 
portions of northern Arizona. Light rain showers are possible 
Thursday and Friday, with dry weather and warmer temperatures 
forecast for the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...A few high clouds moving across the Four Corners region
this evening as a shortwave brushes to our north. Winds have died
down over much of the region, except for areas in the lee of the 
Mogollon Rim where some locally gusty winds may persist through 4 
am. Forecast remains largely unchanged, aside from a few tweaks to
the overnight winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /235 PM MST/...Breezy southwest winds on Tuesday
will transition to strong southwest winds on Wednesday in 
response to a low forecast to sweep across the southern Great 
Basin. The current forecast calls for wind speeds from 20 to 30 
mph with gusts into the 30 to 45 mph range. These strong winds may
combine with very dry conditions to produce a round of critical 
fire weather conditions across portions of northern Arizona.

Unsettled weather continues into Thursday with the passage of
another low pressure system. Enough moisture may be in place for
at least a slight chance of light rain showers. At this point,
any snow looks like it would be confined to the highest mountain
peaks. Otherwise, expect cooler temperatures and less wind.

Some lingering showers are possible on Friday, but high pressure
may build into the area late in the week. Another low pressure
system could impact the area from Sunday into early next week
bringing more wind and increasing chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06z package...VFR conditions prevail for the 
duration of the TAF period. Locally gusty winds remain in the lee
of terrain through 09z, otherwise light and variable winds are
expected for the overnight. Southwest winds increase after 19Z, 
to around 10-20 kts with gusts around 25 kts. Aviation discussion 
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...On Tuesday, expect breezy southwest winds and 
very low afternoon humidity. On Wednesday, an approaching low 
pressure system will bring near critical fire weather conditions 
as strong southwest winds combine with daytime humidity in the 
teens and single digits.

Thursday through Saturday...Expect cooler temperatures and less
wind on Thursday, but enough moisture looks to accompany a second
low pressure system to produce isolated rain showers. Lingering 
showers are possible Friday, with a return of warmer and drier
weather on Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys/RR
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...RR


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff