688 FXUS63 KLMK 170110 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 910 PM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Issued at 910 PM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Not many changes to the forecast tonight. Regional radars reveal a weak band of showers currently over MO/IL/AR that are slowly tracking this way. Much of it will weaken by the time it arrives here early tomorrow morning. Some small tweaks have been made to the timing of PoPs based on the latest observations and model trends. && .Short Term...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 After a chilly start to the morning with lows in the lower to mid 30s, temperatures have rebounded nicely this afternoon into the mid 50s and lower 60s. Satellite imagery shows a mix of sun and clouds across the region with scattered cumulus clouds over the Bluegrass region and mid/high level clouds beginning to stream into west- central KY. Cloud coverage will continue to increase this evening and overnight ahead of an approaching shortwave, helping to keep overnight lows a bit warmer tonight in the low to mid 40s. By Saturday morning, the weakening mid-level shortwave trough will move out of the mid MS Valley and into the OH Valley, helping to spark scattered light rain showers over the area during the day. Model time heights suggest forcing and overall moisture will remain rather unimpressive, therefore am not expecting much in the way of rainfall totals. EPS and GEFS Ensemble Members suggest rainfall amounts will likely remain between a Trace and a couple tenths of an inch for most, although cannot rule out some isolated spots with a little higher totals. Under increased sky coverage, high temperatures for the day will remain cooler than today, topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s. .Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 Saturday Night - Sunday Night... The lead shortwave will be exiting to our east by Saturday night, with an expected brief lull in light rain chances overnight into the first part of Sunday. We should see some subsidence in the wake of that first wave, and before the second shortwave arrives later Sunday into Sunday night. Will then ramp some low chance pops back into the forecast for Sunday afternoon/evening ahead of the second wave as steepening low level lapse rates and a little forcing should be enough to spark a few showers. Any thunder chances are quite marginal, but low level lapse rates may just be steep enough for a few rumbles. Sunday highs are expected to reach the upper 50s and low 60s ahead of the later precipitation chances arriving. Look for Sunday night lows back in the low to mid 40s. Monday - Monday Night... By Monday morning, the second shortwave should be pushing east of our area, along with any lingering light precipitation chances. Brief shortwave ridging then briefly takes hold of the region bringing us a dry start to the new work week. Monday highs should find their way to the low to mid 60s, still a bit below normal for highs. Tuesday - Wednesday... As we enter the mid week portion of the forecast, expect an amplifying trough to dig into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region with surface cyclogenesis taking place somewhere over our region Tuesday into Tuesday night, then moving east Wednesday. Tuesday morning starts out dry, however expect increasing deep moisture ahead of the trough axis. In addition, a strong cold front looks to move through our area at the surface. This will bring a round of precipitation to our region later Tuesday into Tuesday night, before tapering to lingering showers into Wednesday. Some data still support a chance for some non-impactful snowflakes to mix in on Tuesday night, so will leave some mention in the grids. Best chance to see a few late season flakes would be across our northern CWA. Wednesday Night - Friday... Dry NW flow aloft, and strong surface high pressure then look to build into the area for Thursday. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the cool Canadian airmass combined with good radiational cooling conditions and the surface high centering near the region on Thursday morning could allow for a notable frost threat. Something to keep an eye on for potential future headlines. High temps should remain just below normal through the end of the work week. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 710 PM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 VFR conditions anticipated for the forecast period. A weakening band of showers will approach from the west overnight, and eventually move into southern IN and central KY toward the early morning hours. Model guidance differs on how well it will hold together when it arrives, but the general thinking is that activity will be very light and short lived in nature in any one given location. Will handle that uncertainty with VCSH in the TAF for now. New showers may develop during the afternoon hours, but most of that activity should begin to dwindle down in coverage by late afternoon. Cigs/Vis at this time are projected to be at VFR levels, with most cloud decks staying above 3500ft for the duration of the forecast period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...DM Short Term...JML Long Term...BJS Aviation...DM