123 FXUS63 KAPX 110219 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1019 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1019 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Vertically-stacked low pressure remains centered over Illinois late this evening. Deep moisture surging northward continues to produce a swath of widespread showers...the northern edge of which is slowly lifting northward into our CWA. Arrival time of showers has been rather slow...but appears deep moisture is finally winning out with most areas south of M-32 now receiving steady rainfall. Thunder has been hard to come by across our CWA...but cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder for our southern CWA over the next few hours. Have made some minor adjustments to POPs for the overnight hours. Temps will only drop a few degrees overnight...with low temps in the mid to upper 40s. && .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 ...Widespread showers tonight... High impact weather potential: Minimal. A few rumbles of thunder expected into this evening. Nothing severe anticipated Pattern synopsis and forecast: As one area of low pressure exits off into Canada, another begins to take shape this afternoon as strong shortwave trough rotates northeast across Missouri. In-between these systems is low amplitude mid level ridge axis, which is conveniently draped right across northern Michigan. The result has been a fairly quiet start to the day, with just some clouds spreading across our landscape. Another mild mid-April day, with current readings mostly ranging through the 50s and 60s. Our break from the rain will definitely not last long as that Missouri wave continues to pivot northeast, reaching vicinity Illinois/Indiana border by sunrise Sunday. Strong surge of theta-e advection and upper level jet support will pivot into our region as a result, bringing a round of widespread rain from south to north later this afternoon and tonight. Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing shower/thunderstorm evolution tonight and attendant rainfall amounts. Details: Expect band of showers to make steady progress north across the area into this evening as surge of deep moisture/theta-e advection does the same. Precipitable water values up to and a bit over an inch and expected isolated deeper convection (rumbles of thunder) via a few hundred joules/kg of elevated cape supports some decent rainfall rates at times. Given expected fairly transient progression of most organized showers, do not think rainfall totals will get too out of hand, perhaps up to an inch (locally higher) for areas south of M- 72. Moisture axis thins a bit the further north one goes, so expect rainfall totals to do the same. Not expecting any severe weather, given such limited and elevated cape profiles. Dry slot works steadily north, reaching our southern zones toward morning, ending the better rains for those areas in the process. Another mild night, with lows only dropping into the 40s. && .SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 High impact weather potential: None at this time. A slow moving area of low pressure over the Great Lakes region will continue to impact northern Michigan's weather with moisture advecting into the forecast area in the warm sector through Sunday on south to southeasterly winds. With this system moving very slowly north-northeastward, the forecast area remains in the warm sector with periods of showers throughout...especially during the afternoon hours with diurnal heating. Models continue to agree with this stacked system over the Great Lakes region lingering overhead...continuing to provide cloudy and wet periods throughout the remainder of this forecast period and possibly beyond. The winds will once again veer to the southeast as this storm system continues it's very slow movement towards the forecast area and becomes gusty once again Sunday. Winds finally veer to more northwesterly by late Monday as the system finally moves off to our east and ushers in some colder temperatures. Temperatures will continue to be well above normal for this time of the year...reaching into the upper 50s to low 60s Sunday and Monday, with Tuesday being more seasonal, only in the upper 40s to low 50s as the colder air is ushered in on the northwesterly winds. Lows will drop into the low 30s to near 40...returning chances of frost to the area by Monday night. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Long term: High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. A rather inconclusive long term forecast is on tap. Models are anywhere from cloudy with chances of rain each day to high pressure and dry throughout the entire long term period with moisture and chances of showers just to our west. Going with the national blend at this time in collaboration with our neighbors. Mostly dry forecast, but wouldn't be surprised if that changes and we have a couple/few periods with some rain chances. Daytime temperatures will be in the 50s...while dropping into the low to mid 30s with some frost/freeze conditions possible. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 700 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Vertically-stacked low pressure centered over Illinois will slowly track east thru Indiana tonight into Sunday...reaching Lake Erie by Sunday evening. Widespread rain showers will continue to spread northward into Northern Lower Michigan tonight...and will then diminish to scattered rain showers on Sunday as the deeper moisture pulls north of Michigan. VFR conditions will slowly drop to MVFR tonight...and will generally remain MVFR/low VFR on Sunday. NE winds around 10 to 15 kts will become east late tonight into Sunday morning...and will then begin to shift to the NW Sunday afternoon as the low center begins to shift east of Michigan. && .MARINE... Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 Low pressure cutting slowly across Illinois tonight will bring some marginal small craft advisory northeast winds to portions of northern Lake Michigan, with winds expected to remain below advisory levels across the remainder of the nearshore waters. Focus for stronger winds centers across northern Lake Huron up into Whitefish Bay on Sunday, perhaps bringing some marginal small craft advisory conditions to those areas. Widespread showers spread across the region from south to north this evening. Although widespread showers end early Sunday, expect at least scattered showers to persist right into early next work week. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ342-344>346. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MR NEAR TERM...MB SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...MR MARINE...MB