231 FXUS64 KAMA 092343 AAA AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 643 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs, winds will continue to diminish early this evening at the TAF sites. After that occurs, surface winds are forecast to remain generally less than 12 knots from late this evening through the end of the fcst cycle. Little to no cloud cover is anticipated. Overall, VFR conditions are expected at KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA through late Saturday afternoon. 02 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tomorrow Night... A very odd setup has lead to north winds over achieving by a pretty large margin this afternoon in the northern zones. Latest 19z WV depicted an upper level shortwave crossing into KS and NE. Mid and upper level lift was evident based on rapidly developing and cooling cloud tops spanning from central NE to far southwest KS. At the surface, a cold front was moving south and had clear the southern Texas Panhandles as of this writing. Pressure rises behind the front were modest at 1 to 2 mb/hr, and a 850mb jet was estimated to be in the 35 to 40 knot range based on VAD profiler at KAMA. Yet north winds were sustained at around 40 to 45 mph in the north central zones (e.g Stinnet, Perryton, Guymon) with gusts over 55 mph at times. The best explanation for these winds is that there must be combination of additional acceleration due to "virga bombs" just upstream near Elkhart, KS to Liberal, KS and support from orientation and position of 500mb jet streak (right exit region producing ageostrophic response). Bottom line is that we have issued at High Wind Warning for the north central and northeast zones for sustained winds of 40 mph or greater. We do expect the higher winds to shift over the northeast Panhandles through the afternoon as the virga showers (and 500mb jet streak exit region) move east along the KS/OK state line. The upper level shortwave will shift across the south central plains tonight allowing a surface ridge to slide down across the Panhandles. This will result in a rapid decrease in wind speeds after sunset tonight. The combination of decreasing winds and clear skies will promote radiational cooling and cold temperatures overnight. Expect lows to bottom out at or below freezing in the Oklahoma Panhandle and northwest Texas Panhandle, with mid 30s in the central and southwest TX Panhandles. The Panhandles will stay in northwest flow aloft through tomorrow in the wake of the departing low. The surface ridge will shift east of the Panhandles allowing for some weak lee surface troughing and light to breezy southwest winds. This will help temperatures rise into the upper 60s to low 70s making for a pretty nice day. Ward LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday... Starting on Sunday, this will be the warmest day of the forecast period. Dry conditions will continue with southwest winds eventually shifting to northwesterly going into Sunday evening as a cold front moves south across the Panhandles. One more day of high temperatures well above average in the 80s on Sunday before we drop to below average from Monday through the remainder of the forecast period. A developing sinusoidal H500 synoptic pattern along the western CONUS will dictate the weather pattern throughout the remainder of the forecast period. Overall dry conditions for Monday with H500 zonal flow across the Panhandles. It wont be until Tuesday afternoon until we see our first chance of precipitation for the Panhandles. Latest 09/12Z model and numerical data shows a developing H500 flow over the northern Rockies/Great Basin Region. The broad cyclonic flow across the NW CONUS will slowly help to intensify H500-300 jet across the southern and southwest CONUS throughout the week. Coupled with low level signatures of upslope H850 SE sfc winds moisture transport from the Gulf along with decent H850-700 theta-e advection of moisture from the eastern Pacific, the lower ATM column should have a suffice amount of moisture. The question moving forward into Wednesday and Thursday will be the ingredients needed for thunderstorms. At this time, early on in the week Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning, the well displaced H500 low over the northern Rockies with a rather weak H300 jet across the southern CONUS and rather warm H500 temperatures should keep activity in a non-convective feature. Wednesday afternoon and Thursday, H300 zonal WSW-ENE jet over the southern Plains will begin to intensify due to main PV perturbations cyclonic flow around the main H500 low gets displaced equatorward. Closer to the surface, SE surface upslope flow with a more pronounced poleward displacement of H850 theta-e values along a potential pseudo-dryline in the Panhandles could set the stage for better lift for thunderstorm development. Best chance for thunderstorms to occur will be across the eastern Panhandles. More widespread precipitation chances for all of the Panhandles will start on Wednesday continuing into Thursday (20-40% chance). High temperatures will still remain well below average so that could work against any sfc based convection. Will monitor and update accordingly as we get closer to mid next week. A hopefully pattern change to precipitation in the Panhandles next week may be coming. Meccariello FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for Sunday, mainly across the western and central Panhandles. Especially in the airmass ahead of cold front Sunday afternoon, min RH values will get as low as 7-10 percent with SW 20 ft winds at 15-20 MPH. This will result in max RFTI values of 3 to 4. Meccariello && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$