774 FXUS65 KABQ 081747 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1147 AM MDT Thu Apr 8 2021 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE A weak shortwave trough and associated jet streak will approach NM from the west late today. West and northwest winds are increasing over the region and will peak btwn 21Z and 01Z w/ gusts up to 35 kt. Sufficient mid level moisture entering the region will allow virga showers to develop within northern and central NM aft 22Z. Activity will taper off aft sunset followed by lighter winds then SKC aft 08Z. Guyer && .PREV DISCUSSION...322 AM MDT Thu Apr 8 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Warm, windy and dry conditions will persist through the weekend. Critical fire weather conditions are a concern again today mainly near and south of I-40, and may return on Friday as well for portions of northwest and central New Mexico. Though winds through the weekend will mainly be from the southwest and west, a cold front on Friday night will bring strong northeasterly winds to eastern New Mexico. Another front will arrive on Sunday night which will do the same. Low level moisture will begin to make a return next week resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. Temperatures will trend downward with the increased moisture. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... The dry, warm, and breezy to windy weather will continue today and Friday. We have issued another wind advisory for the Central Highlands, including Clines Corners. We will also add the Middle Rio Grande Valley and East Central Plains to the Red Flag Warning we have out. Highs today will be warmer than Wednesday and above normal. One concern we have is an influx of mid level moisture today. Could see buildups and virga just about anywhere. A short wave trough will pass north of NM Friday, bringing only wind. In addition, a back door cold front will move into the northeast. Height falls Friday will bring about cooler high temperatures everywhere, but highs will remain above normal. LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... As an upper level low slides into the central Great Plains, an associated cold front will blast through eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. Quite the pressure gradient is expected with the front, thus expect winds to be strong behind it. Increased winds behind the front with this forecast package, but it's quite possible these winds will need to be nudged upward further. NAM is certainly boasting the strongest winds of any model, and this is due to the stronger surface high building in behind it in eastern CO. The front will lose steam as it pushes westward, and only a weak gap wind remains forecast in the Rio Grande Valley. Following the frontal passage, high temperatures on Saturday will be cooler across the plains, but will remain near normal for this time of year. The front will mix out Saturday, and southwest to westerly breezes will return. More westerly breezes are expected on Sunday, with temperatures increasing back above normal for all areas. Yet another back door front will race into eastern NM Sunday night as the parent storm system tracks across the northern Great Plains. Once again, strong and gusty north to northeasterly winds are expected behind the front. Unlike the Friday night front, this front has better potential of pushing through the gaps of the central mountain chain resulting in at least moderate winds in the Rio Grande Valley. Temperatures will be knocked down a bit more with this front as well, and temperatures on Monday across the eastern plains will drop to slightly below normal. As the surface winds behind the front veer around to the south and southeast Monday, much needed Gulf moisture will begin to make its return to the Land of Enchantment, mainly across central and eastern NM. Then, as a large upper low develops over the Intermountain West and wobbles around through at least mid week, it's looking better that the return flow will persist. Though it may be until Tuesday or Wednesday before we see a few showers or thunderstorms develop, this is a welcomed trend, even if the best chances for precipitation remain along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. CHJ/34 && .FIRE WEATHER... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, SANDIA, MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS... More dry, warm, breezy to windy and modestly unstable air will be overhead through Friday. Critical fire weather conditions will continue today over central and southern zones. We will continue the Red Flag Warning currently out and add zones 106 and 108. Critical conditions will lessen some Friday. Zones 101 and 107 will have the best chances for critical fire weather conditions Friday. Highs will be cooler everywhere as a short wave trough passes our north. Along with the trough will be a surface front that backs into the northeast late Friday, and continues south and west Friday night. Saturday will dry and cooler in the east with moderate wind speeds. Sunday warms up again, then a stronger back door cold front will impact much of NM Sunday night into Monday with much cooler temperatures. From Tuesday on the pattern appears to be changing to a more active weather pattern. There will be a couple of opportunities for precipitation. Models are way different and confidence is low as to the extent and timing of various systems. CHJ && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones... NMZ105>109. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones... NMZ223. && $$