792 FXUS62 KMFL 042350 AAA AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 750 PM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021 .UPDATE... High pressure will continue to move into the Western Atlantic Waters tonight from the Southeastern United States. This will continue to swing the winds to an easterly direction while the wind speeds decrease to 5 to 10 mph over the metro areas to less than 5 mph over the interior areas. Dry weather along with mostly clear to clear skies will also continue over South Florida tonight as the dew points remain in the 50s. This in turn will allow for the temperatures to cool down closer to the dew points tonight. Therefore, the lows have been a lower a little bit across South Florida tonight with lows now in the 50s over most areas, except lower to mid 60s over the metro areas due to the higher wind speeds. Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are planned. && AVIATION... The winds will remain northeast to east over all of the TAF sites tonight with VFR conditions in the ceiling and vis along with dry weather. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 403 PM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021) SHORT TERM (Rest of Today through Monday)... A mostly sunny and cool Sunday across South Florida. Northeast to easterly breeze across the area although not as strong as the past few days as the pressure gradient continues to gradually weaken.There is still some low-level moisture but relatively dry throughout the rest of atmosphere. However, with the low-level moisture can not rule out an isolated light shower over the Atlantic waters or the east coast with the breeze off the ocean and warm Gulf stream this afternoon and evening. High pressure will continue to dominate with the winds beginning to relax. Dry and fairly benign weather pattern in place with a gradual warming trend in both the morning lows and afternoon high temperatures tomorrow. LONG TERM (Monday Night through Sunday)... Main Points: 1) Monitoring fire weather conditions throughout the extended period, as minimum RHs are forecast to fall below critical thresholds across the western interior areas of southern Florida each afternoon. Present indications are that light boundary-layer winds will generally mitigate these concerns. 2) Increasing rain and thunderstorm chances are forecast for the upcoming weekend ahead of an approaching mid/upper-level perturbation. Monday Night through Wednesday: Primarily zonal mid/upper-level flow across the Florida peninsula will result in mostly stable and dry conditions as surface high pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic waters. This pattern will generally support light easterly to east-southeasterly winds and diurnal development of east and west coast sea breezes. Temperatures will be slightly below average on Tuesday, becoming near-normal on Wednesday. Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to drop below critical thresholds across the western interior areas of southern Florida each afternoon -- where dry antecedent conditions are present -- though boundary-layer winds appear to remain below critical thresholds (generally mitigating fire weather concerns). Thursday through the Weekend: From Thursday into Friday, a closed/vertically stacked mid-level low will slowly lift northeastward from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region -- with a high amplitude ridge remaining in place across the eastern states. This evolution of the large scale pattern will result in warming temperatures and increasing moisture across southern Florida owing to enhanced warm sector residence time across the region -- coincident with increasing thickness values. Temperatures will be near-normal for Thursday, becoming above average on Friday and the upcoming weekend. As low- level theta-e values increase across southern Florida, present indications are that strengthening southern stream flow and a mid- level perturbation will support increasing rain and thunderstorm chances going into the weekend. Although there are noteworthy differences amongst the global model solutions, this pattern would support enhanced bulk shear values coincident with modest instability -- supportive of organized convection across southern Florida. Keep up with the latest forecast information from NWS Miami. AVIATION(18Z TAFS)... Mostly dry and VFR conditions prevail throughout the period. Breezy and at times gusty ENE winds across the area this afternoon An isolated shower will be possible along the breeze. Winds become less gusty overnight but still remain elevated. Breezy easterly winds continue tomorrow, but less gusty. MARINE... High pressure across the area with pressure gradient slowly beginning to weaken across the area. Winds and seas will gradually decrease across the Atlantic waters through the day. With SCEC through the remainder of the day. Marine conditions continue to improve with fairly benign marine conditions for much of the week ahead. FIRE WEATHER... Northeast to easterly winds will continue across the region through early this week, as high pressure over the Southeastern United States will slowly move into into the Western Atlantic waters. This will allow for the dry air to remain in place allowing for the relative humidity to fall into the lower to mid 30s over the western areas to the upper 30s to mid 40s over the eastern areas of South Florida each afternoon. The ERC's will also be in the mid 30s to near 40 over South Florida each afternoon, but the 20 foot winds will remain below 15 mph. Therefore, no fire weather headlines will be needed for South Florida at this time. The dispersions readings will also be in the good to very good range on Monday, except for the southern Interior areas of South Florida where they will be in the excellent range. On Tuesday, the dispersion readings will be in the fair to good range over South Florida. BEACHES... A high risk of rip currents will continue through at least Monday afternoon along the Atlantic coast beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 63 78 64 80 / 0 10 0 0 West Kendall 60 79 61 82 / 0 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 61 79 61 79 / 0 10 0 0 Homestead 61 76 62 79 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 63 77 65 79 / 0 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 61 76 63 78 / 0 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 60 78 62 80 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 60 76 61 78 / 0 10 0 0 Boca Raton 61 77 63 79 / 0 10 0 0 Naples 58 80 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ Update/Aviation/Fire Weather...BNB Tonight/Monday and Marine...Kelly Monday Night through Sunday...Weinman Visit us at weather.gov/miami Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwsmiami www.twitter.com/nwsmiami