200 
FXUS63 KICT 042342
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
642 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

Tonight-Monday:
Still getting consistent signal for transient mid level moisture
late tonight and into mid Monday morning across central KS.
Probability of measurable precipitation still less than 20
percent, but a sprinkle or two is possible and will mention for a
small area. Otherwise influx of low level moisture suggest some
low clouds potential across southeast KS similar to what occurred
this morning in southern OK. By afternoon clouds will be on the
decrease with winds on the increase. Temperatures will likely be
well above normals, especially in far west where dewpoints will 
be a bit lower. 

Monday night-Tuesday morning:
For Monday night, combo of brisk winds and modest influx of low
level moisture will keep temperatures up overnight. Precipitation
chances are less certain. Large scale lift is probable given
increasingly diffluent upper flow ahead of approaching upper low,
but depth/quality of moisture is a bit weak. Will continue slight
chances along north/northeast fringes of forecast area, but trim 
south extent slightly.

Tuesday afternoon-Tuesday night:
Not as optimistic about chances storm chances in the afternoon
given lack of surface convergence and capping. Chances will ramp
up during the evening and overnight as front/dryline moves
through. Of note GFS is a fair amount faster pushing instability
through Tuesday afternoon/evening than NAM. Both show good
instability, but with a less than optimal wind profile for severe
storms.

Wednesday:
While overall scenario remains the same, details on track/timing
of surface low and resultant dry slot continue to have a lot of
slop on Wednesday. This significantly plays into precipitation
chances, clouds and temperatures. Slightly prefer the slower/
deeper GFS and NAM, but NBM initialization grids captures
uncertainty fairly well with small pops lingering Wednesday
afternoon in central KS. Suspect this precipitation will be highly
diurnally modulated, and with colder air aloft convective 
showers/ thunderstorm are probable. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

No precipitation is expected throughout the period. GFS/ECMWF in 
fairly good agreement with a dry front moving through on Friday 
during the day. Dry air and downslope component ahead of the front
on Thursday will likely boost temperatures above forecast, 
potentially by 5 or more degree based on NBM 50 percentile data. 
Temperatures on Friday will be dependent on timing of the front, 
but likely in the ballpark for an early frontal passage and cool 
for a slower one. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

Mid and high clouds will impact the area tonight as a subtle wave
races eastward across the region. Gusty southerly winds will
return to much of the area on Monday with highest speeds across
south central Kansas. There is some concern that stratus will lift
northeast out of Oklahoma impacting portions of southeast Kansas
during the morning hours on Mon but confidence in how widespread
this is remains fairly low at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

Brisk winds through Tuesday will result in very high GFDI during 
the afternoon for most locations on Monday afternoon and for 
portions of the area on Tuesday afternoon depending on precipitation
in the morning. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    57  81  61  76 /   0   0  10  10 
Hutchinson      56  82  60  76 /   0   0  10  20 
Newton          57  81  61  75 /   0   0  10  10 
ElDorado        56  80  61  75 /   0   0  10  10 
Winfield-KWLD   57  80  61  76 /   0   0  10  10 
Russell         56  85  58  79 /  10  10  20  20 
Great Bend      56  85  58  79 /   0   0  10  20 
Salina          57  82  60  78 /  10  10  20  20 
McPherson       56  82  60  76 /   0  10  10  20 
Coffeyville     55  76  60  74 /   0  10   0  10 
Chanute         57  77  61  74 /   0  10  10  10 
Iola            56  78  60  74 /   0  10  10  10 
Parsons-KPPF    56  77  60  74 /   0  10   0  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...PJH